Pundit Pap

Filed by Dave "Doctor" Gonzo
for the Editors of American Politics Journal

MONDAY FEBRUARY 2ND 1998 --- New York (APJP) -- The top talk among Beltway spinmeisters this week: the 180-degree turn in the President's fortune, polling numbers, strategy to combat allegations of wrongdoing and the press — "have we gone too far?" The issues as addressed by Clinton during the State of the Union Address and the growing tension over Iraq also figured heavily in this weekend's pap.

All dialogue condensed unless "in quotes" and our comments (in parentheses).

Evans & Novak

I lied — I said we wouldn't cover Senator Jesse "Goober" Helms appearance this week, but a few of his comments merit (in a manner of the word's meaning) comment.

On Hillary Rodham Clinton's comments about a right-wing conspiracy against her husband: "A lot of things are said in frustration, as I said earlier about Mrs. Clinton, and I know this is a difficult time for her. I don't know how Dot Helms would put up with it… yes I do, I believe she'd throw a rolling pin at me!"

On media coverage of allegations against the President: "More and more I hear from parents who talk about 'How do I explain this to my children?' "

On friction between Iraq and the US: "There's no point in talking to Iraq anymore. You know what he [sic] is and how he operates. But what bothers me is that maybe this is getting to be a political gambit, and I hope the President won't take action without thoroughly consulting the Congress. He'll be making a bad mistake if he does… He's been known to take action to take the public's mind off certain events."

On relations with allies which won't back our position on Iraq: "I'm sick of bailing out these countries three or four times a century and then when the time comes to help the United States they say 'We're not going to do it.' "

On Fidel Castro: "I don't care how he leaves there, horizontally or vertically. I want him out of there."

Any commentary on our part would surely prove superfluous — Senator Helms' words speak for themselves.

Fox News Sunday

"The Big Turnaround" dominated the show, though (as always) Tony Snow and the posse covered plenty of other political ground outside the Lewinsky controversy.

The first guest was Monica Lewinsky's attorney William Ginsburg, making his "farewell tour" of all the Sunday punditfests before taking off with his client for California and, presumably, planning her defense. Unlike last week's go-round with Ginsburg, Tony was joined by Juan Williams, Mara Liasson and Brit Hume. His comments on Fox News Sunday and Meet the Press were dissimilar enough that both deserve a look in depth.

He first addressed some Fox news poll numbers which show the public holds a negative view of Monica Lewinsky, attacking them as "designed by people who are seeking a result… Polls don't mean a lot to me." (They mean a lot to the networks and pundit show producers, though, and certainly impact on tone and content)

Many of the questions would show up elsewhere (notably on Meet the Press) but a few were outstanding — or stood out like a sore thumb:

Next was a discussion on the President's State of the Union Address, with Senator Pete Domenici and Clinton advisor Franklin Raines joining Tony. Some choice soundbites show how the debate on Clinton's ambitious package of proposals and handling a budget on the verge of balancing will be played out in the press. The spin points: Before the break, Tony announced the upcoming "Ready to rock Baghdad" segment as Tom Lehrer's Send the Marines played over video clips, then … Holy soybeans and ethanol, a David Brinkley ADM spot!

Former Secretary of State James Baker joined Tony Snow on the topic of Iraq. Baker was emphatic in his view that diplomatic options have been exhausted. On the subject of whether Israel should be kept out of the equation, Baker argued that in 1991 the US didn't want the coalition to fray by turning it into an Arab-Israeli war; this time, if Israel is attacked, they should be able to strike back. In response to Tony's question about why the coalition "fizzled," Baker stated that despite the passage of time and the fact that the coalition's goals were accomplished (what? Saddam's still the head homeboy in Baghdad, James) we should get as much international backing as possible.

Baker outlined what he sees as the options: Baker also pointed out the difficulty in pinpointing bioweapons facilities and emphasized the fact that there are not many good targets. Topic one for the roundtable chat: are reporters beating up on themselves/ yes, with spin from all: Juan said that reporters have something to be hard on themselves about, Mara said the public was being particularly hard on the media, but Brit, grumpy as usual on the subject, said "This is all silly" — the public is telling pollsters they don't like the prurient coverage but they're watching it (what else IS there to watch, Brit… especially on the Fox "Leaks at 11" News Channel?). Juan added that the public may not believe the President, but they support him. Tony threw in a plug for Brit's new Fox News show (note to Brit: we'll be watching, so behave yourself).

Talk then turned to poll numbers:

Do you believe the President's denials of the Lewinsky allegations?
Yes 45% No 43% Not sure 12%
Describe the President's statements about the Lewinsky allegations:
Legalistic phrases 61% Plain talk 28% Not sure 11%
Should the media stop reporting the private sex lives of public figures?
Yes 69% No 26% Not sure 5%

Tony's parting shots: "In seven days the press has gone from talk of resignation to beating up on themselves."
In other words, we should drop the shame and drudge… er, dredge for the truth.

The McLaughlin Group

ISSUE 1: GIVE'EM HELL HILLARY! Hillary's claim of a right-wing conspiracy has definitely gotten under John's skin. But it was for the best: John was in an unusually cranky, blustery mood this week, interrupting Fred "The Beetle" Barnes and Pat Buchanan on numerous occasions. It made for posturing punditry at its best and a raucous Mc-Laugh-In Group. Some good replies to his question "Is Hillary a conspiracy nut herself?" (It works for her, John!)

There was a short piece on Ken Starr, playing up the successful indictment and conviction of 13 figures (but with no mention of the fact that the evidence in these trials has pretty much exonerated the Clintons). John's "Nazi Propoganda effectiveness" rating: on a scale of 0 to 10, rate the effective of Hillary's charges that Starr is using Gestapo tactics (we took offense, John — you should know better than this sort of sleazebag grandstanding). ISSUE 2: COLD COMFORT FOR CLINTON! A short video piece on Monica Lewinsky, Michael Blyla's news conference on his five year affair with Lewinsky, comments by William Ginsburg, a strong defense by Clinton's former Chief of Staff Leon Panetta, and poll numbers. John's question: Suppose the Lewinsky-Blyla claim is true? ISSUE 3: DEATH STRUGGLE! In the wake of the last two week's events, the GOP "could draw close to a veto-proof majority." Democratic fundraising and recruitment are down, reelection hopes have been hurt, and they want a resolution quickly. John's question (which had little to do with the death struggle): Are the Democrats better off with Clinton or Gore as President?
Michael: Many Democrats would feel better off with Gore.
Pat: Gore.
Eleanor: The American people are more sophisticated than this.
A short clip on Gore's "balancing act" — supporting the President's policies but remaining mum on the Lewinsky situation. Did Gore hit the right balance?
Fred: Gore is "Sergeant York in Clinton's anti-impeachment army." (almost the soundbite of the week)
Michael & John: What about a pardon?
Pat: He won't.
Another short clip: Christmas for the GOP — Monica is their "Santa Monica." On the GOP strategy:
Fred: Time for the GOP to talk about Clinton Administration stonewalling.
Eleanor: This "scandal" has backfired on the GOP and become a firebreak for Clinton.

PREDICTIONS
Fred: Secret Service agents will be allowed to testify.
Eleanor: Thanks to Ken Starr, Independent Counsels will have money and time boundaries imposed upon them.
Pat: Chuck Lokey will run against Newt Gingrich in the Georgia Republican Primary.
Michael: IMF package goes down.
John: IMF gets $3.5 billion to bail out Asia, not 14.5 billion. Fast track is dead! Bye-bye!

Meet the Press

What does Monica Lewinsky know and when will we know it? Has the press gone to far?

Tim Russert introduced the "ubiquitous William Ginsburg" and covered somewhat different ground than Tony Snow. Like last week's interview, the rapid-fire questioning covered a very wide range of topics. On the question of whether talks were still ongoing with Kenneth Starr, Ginsburg replied "I don't know… talks are ongoing."

Ginsburg would not discuss the meeting between the President and Lewinsky which took place, citing attorney-client privilege. On the subject of tapes, Ginsburg doesn't have them and is not aware of their full contents; he cryptically stated that "because I don't have them does not mean they don't exist… I'm the only one without tapes!" He reiterated the fact that Linda Tripp was not privy to conversations between Monica Lewinsky and President Clinton. On the issue of Linda Tripp's claim that Monica Lewinsky offered her a condominium in Australia, Ginsburg gave essentially the same reply on Fox News Sunday. On the issue of whether it was unusual for a President to have a close relationship with an intern, Ginsburg said he was investigating, but that he has secretaries he's close to and distant from. On the possibility that the President has hidden indiscretions:If the President had sex we should analyze the situation, but the fact is that most Americans don't care. On Monica Lewinsky's poll numbers showing she is unpopular: "I don't know how the networks do these polls. I'm not a statistician… I don't know if that poll's accurate or not." How will this all end? "It'll go away. It will pass."

Next up: Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA), Congressman Barney Frank (D-MA) and Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) discussed the current controversy surrounding Clinton. Question one: if he's lying, is he fit to stay?

The next segment focused on the State of the Union Address, with Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D-NY) and Congressman Dick Armey (R-TX). Tim's roundtable panelists were Sally Quinn, David Broder, David Maraniss and Bob Novak. The opening topic: Newsweek's poll showing most Americans think Hillary Rodham Clinton doesn't believe her husband (where the heck do they come up with these stupid questions).
Quinn: She came into the White House with Eleanor Roosevelt as her hero. She's been looking for a project and sticking up for her husband — "standing by her man" — is now it. I went to a Bible Study group and a lot of women are upset about Monica Lewinsky.
Tim: Is there a double standard within the women's movement?
Broder: A double standard, but a big difference: in the case of Packwood, there was proof.
Novak: The nature of the story is repulsive — people don't want to know.
Tim: What about the White House strategy?
Novak: It's nonsense that there's a right-wing conspiracy. — Helms doesn't even know Starr.
Tim: What's going on in Clinton's head?
Maraniss: Thank God for Hillary, and he's going to pull another Houdini and pull out of it. He won't change his [overall] behavior; he would have done it a long time ago.
Quinn: Clinton came in with the Evil Empire vanquished; now Starr is their villain.
Tim: Mano-a-mano, Clinton v. Starr?
Broder: No. And I'm not substantially comparing the current scandal to Watergate, but remember that the public rallied to Nixon and did not take kindly to tearing him down. The polls are no clue to the situation three months, six months or a year from now.
Novak: Ken Starr's methods are typical of federal prosecutors — the Independent Counsel is terrible — wires and squeezing witnesses is an intrusion on civil liberties — but "they're clubbing Starr with this."
Broder: the President should tell us what happened, but won't because it will put him in jeopardy.
Quinn: The polls reflect cynicism — people are more pragmatic than principled. There is a whispering campaign against ML — the president even referred to her as "that woman."
Maraniss: Clinton has all the facts — the public does not want to hear the facts.
Novak: If the economy were worse, Clinton would be in big trouble.

For the last couple of weeks, Meet the Press has been so chock full of content — even with the limited subject matter — that they haven't had time for their Meet the Press Minute, only a plug of NBC Nightly news Sunday and Dateline Sunday.

CNN Late Edition

CNN expanded Late Edition, now hosted by Wolf Blitzer, to 90 minutes today. The two main topics were the continuing controversy surrounding Monica Lewinsky and the tensions between the US and Iraq. We only had time to catch two of the segments.

Madeleine Albright was Blitzer's guest by sattelite. In response to his question about when we might launch a military strike: "We are saying constantly that we would prefer to have a diplomatic solution to this issue and that we are working with everybody to try to make that happen. That is the preferred solution, but as I have said, that string is running out, the time on it is shorter and shorter — but we are trying to still work on a diplomatic solution."

Wolf: "When you say the string is running out, is it a matter of days, weeks, months?"
Albright: "Well, I think that it's more in the area of weeks, but what we really would like to do, and what I am doing on this trip, is working to explain our point of view to our friends and allies and to talk about next steps, and at the same time, able to get from all of them — and I would really like to report on that — a unified view that Saddam Hussein must carry out his obligations and allow unfettered and unconditional inspection of all the
sites. " She reviewed the varying position of various former Gulf War allies.

Might we strike independently? "We do not believe that it is necessary to have another Security Council resolution. Obviously, the more the Security Council can restate it, fine, but we do not believe that we need authority for the use of force."

Albright put the blame clearly on Saddam in response to a clip of Jesse Helms discussing the situation: "Saddam Hussein is the one that has made, you know, kind of flouted the whole international community by saying that he would not abide by these inspections regimes… I can assure you that this particular crisis was created by Saddam Hussein."

Albright did not go into details about strategy or targets, but did she drop a possible hint in answer to the following question about what she'd say to Saddam? "He talks about presidential palaces. These — this is not the White House, this is the size of Washington, D.C. These are huge areas. Nobody is trying to really get to — get involved in his privacy. What we are trying to do is to assure ourselves that he is not hiding elements of weapons of massdestruction, or ways to make them in what are huge compounds."

Her most telling sound-bite concerned the timetable for diplomacy or action: "I don't think it's useful to have a specific time frame on this. It's not days and it's not months. That leaves weeks."

A few choice soundbites from Wolf's next guest, William Ginsburg, proved more momentous than those made on any on the four other networks:

"[Monica Lewinsky] stands by her affidavit.'' He reiterated these words when asked if she might change her story.

On her taped conversations with Linda Tripp, Ginsburg gave us the Soundbite of the Week: "All 24-year-olds, and all 18-year-olds, and 19-year-olds tend to embellish. None of us can stand the scrutiny of dredging up our past in the wonderful way that the press does it.'' Hmmmm…

Wrap-Up

Clinton Administration officials and congressional Democrats are pushing the main points of the President's State of the Union address; Republicans continue to pursue the issues of "tax breaks for the American family" and cutting away at social programs. The Dems sound more conservative than the GOP on the topic of what to do with the budget surplus: pay down the debt to save money (and radically reform the tax code) down the line; the GOP wants to give it away in tax cuts. Be real - do you think the lion's share of these tax cuts will go to "working families?".

On the continuing controversy surrounding the President, William Ginsburg's comments brought some comfort to the White House. Republicans attacked Hillary Rodham Clinton's claims of a right-wing conspiracy, and even some Democrats and left-leaning pundits said they felt Hillary overstated the case — while naming names and presenting facts which point to some kind of hard-right collusion. On the issue of Presidential wrongdoing, conservatives followed a pattern of "I think we should wait until all the facts are in, but (insert leak here)." Democrats were on point in targeting the excesses of Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr.

Of course, the big story-to-come, Iraq, got mention on the Sunday punditfests, but not enough. While nobody came out and said it directly, the various talking heads underlined the uncertainty of the current situation and the conflict which so many seem to feel is inevitable. Clearly this, and not the Lewinsky story, looks to be the one to watch.


© 1998, 1997, American Politics Journal Publications Inc.