In Case You Haven't Noticed: The Next Presidential Race Is Underway

In case you haven't already noticed:
The Next Presidential Race Is Underway

Monday, May 19th 1997 -- As I combed The New York Times last weekend, an article by Richard Berke caught my eye.

The headline, "With Eye on 2000, Campaigns Begin," was something I would naturally read, and the content was interesting -- tracing recent New Hampshire travel by long-shot GOP presidential hopefuls Lamar Alexander, Senators John McCain of Arizona and Don Nickels of Oklahoma. Also in New Hampshire, of course, was ever-demure Steve Forbes, who was massacred in his failed bid for the Republican nod last year, but lately has been
running "hope, growth and opportunity" radio spots to increase his visibility. Rounding out the GOP field are the three most interesting Republican presidential prospects: Jack Kemp, Dan Quayle and Elizabeth Dole.

Dan Quayle? Yep.

Elizabeth Dole? You betcha!

And let's not forget boyish John Kasich of Ohio, now chairman of the highly visible House Budget Committee, who many think might prove an interesting alternative to the same old names.

That's eight people, one woman and seven men who have either traveled to New Hampshire this year or plan to in the near future.

On the Democrat side we have only two real contenders -- Vice President Al Gore and House Democratic Leader Dick Gephardt. Both men are in awkward political positions.

Gephardt cannot begin to openly campaign against the White House and Mr. Gore without looking like a treacherous pretender to the throne. Gore must brave the plethora of attacks on the President -- and a few aimed at him -- relating to political fundraising practices. Both men, Gephardt and Gore, will also travel to New Hampshire before the end of Summer.

But this piece isn't about the Democrats inasmuch as Vice President Gore is almost sure to get the Democrat nomination. Mr. Gephardt can only hope that Gore stumbles badly or is so bruised by White House scandal that he becomes unacceptable to a majority of Democrat delegates.

What about Bill Bradley, you ask? Well, he's just not in position -- for now.

So why are the eight GOP candidates already moving staff, money and time to the Granite State nearly three years before the next presidential primary?

Jockeying for position? Of course, but there's more to it than that -- and that's the business of politics. The money.

With no clear front-runner, GOP hopefuls need to make an early and consistent appearance in the nation's early primary states. Merely appearing as speakers doesn't cut the mustard. Each candidate must recruit leaders in New Hampshire to carry their colors for the next three years, staff their offices, walk precincts, and do all the things necessary to catapult them above the fray and into a winning position.

And let's not forget about the money -- lots of it, needed to fuel presidential campaigns that cost more than $400 million dollars for the primary and general elections in 1996. This holds true even for candidates that aren't sure they'll even run in the end.

One of the biggest problems facing presidential candidates is finding the person who will run their campaigns and the elements thereof. Today, in addition to the general campaign consultant, specialized consultants for media, press relations, research and event planning are all must-haves on the personnel lists of campaigns. Not only must these slots be filled nationally, but on a state wide and sometimes even county basis. Thus, a single candidate might end up with ten key people on the payroll for as long as two to three years ahead of time. These basic personnel costs can run into millions of dollars.

If a candidate or potential candidate isn't tagged as a "player" early on, money from traditional and, as we've seen, non-traditional funders can dry up quickly. Thus far, only Steve Forbes can afford to bankroll his campaign from personal funds and word is he, like other wealthy candidates before him, is quickly tiring of footing the bill.

Many candidates have already formed political action committees -- often with goals that are ostensibly other than electing them president. It is these PACs that provide the money for early spending, getting the candidate around, paying the consultants and the like.

Political money isn't as easy to come by these days. Corporations and wealthy individuals who usually choose up sides, or more than one side, early on are now sitting on the fence trying to make heads or tails of the current atmosphere, which targets big contributors regarding what they expect from politicians in return.

In order to get them to risk their reputations in today's "witch hunt" culture, candidates must try longer and harder to convince political financiers that they are backing a winner.

In the end, the name of the game is "Who is most bankable?" Everything we see today, three years from any presidential primary, is geared toward that end.