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Chris Gelken's
An Outsider Looking In
Kosovo: No Fat Lady -- Yet.

Friday, June 11, 1999 -- HONG KONG -- I hope the ghost of Mr. Burns will forgive my mangled effort.

"Oh wad the power the gif'tae gie'us, to see oursel's as others see us"

The Scottish bard had it so right; what an advantage it would be if we had the gift to see ourselves, as others see us?

Right now NATO is seeing itself as the 'D-B's' -- or for those unfamiliar with the British expression that suggests 'superiority' -- "The dog's bollocks."

Belgrade, on the other hand, is also claiming victory. I am sure that the vast majority of APJ readers would immediately trash any suggestion that Belgrade won anything. I guess, as Mr. Burns says, it is in the way we see ourselves, and the way others see us.

The most powerful military alliance in the world mounts the biggest air bombardment in history against what is essentially a developing nation -- and it takes 11 weeks to bring them to 'heel'. Frankly, I wouldn't be too proud of that.

And why was the offensive launched? If I can remember, it was to stop ethnic cleansing. I don't think NATO scored very highly in that sphere of operations. With NATO estimates of 90-percent of ethnic Kosovo-Albanians now either living as refugees or as displaced persons within Kosovo -- the vast majority of them becoming refugees and displaced persons 'AFTER' the NATO rejection of a compromise in Paris and the start of the bombing campaign -- I wouldn't consider that much of a success either.

This alleged 'victory' reminds me of a scene from one of the 'Police Academy' movies. There was a robbery taking place in a glass/lighting shop. 'Academy' movie buffs will be able to correct me on this, but as I remember it, the robbery was prevented at the cost of completely destroying the shop. A bit like burning down the house to get rid of a termite problem. But if the perceived termite is Slobodan Milosevic, here's news. He is still there. The Kosovo Albanian house -- well, that's trashed.

The hundreds of thousands of refugees that were supposed to have never become refugees because of the NATO air offensive can now return to a province where most of the basic infrastructure has been destroyed by the air offensive that was supposed to protect them. Way to go.

And what will they be returning to? A territory occupied by a foreign military force. A benevolent military force, maybe, but a force that one day will leave. And then what?

Jesse is right, Kosovo will become a European 'Korea'. The bombing hasn't solved the essential problem. NATO missed that opportunity at the Paris peace talks. If NATO had agreed to identify themselves as a 'core' of a United Nations force -- then there would have been no war -- and more than a million people would probably still be living in their homes -- in Kosovo. And NATO accuses Belgrade of being intransigent.

Now, NATO is going to occupy Kosovo as the 'core' element of what will be a Security Council endorsed force. Did we need the war? Did we need the human catastrophe?

The deal we have now is a 'Korea' deal. It is a deal similar to the one achieved at the end of WW1 -- and that led to WW2.

It might be over for now -- but it ain't over. The fat lady isn't in the house yet.



Click here for Chris Gelken's previous commentary in American Politics Journal.

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ISSN No. 1523-1690