It's only a matter of time, Newt.
Only a matter of time.
Newt, leaving the Capitol?
Monday, July 28th 1997: If you think Newt Gingrich is stronger today than he was before young-Turk Republican House members tried to dethrone him last week -- join the ranks of mealy-mouthed pundits who, almost to a man, claims this is the case.

Don't be fooled. If you're a regular reader, you know I've penned at least a dozen pieces on the inevitable demise of Mr. Gingrich -- ("Don" Newt ;The Speaker Doth Protest Too Much; Finally, the Beginning of the End for Gingrich; Gingrich & Bush Jr. - Dialing for Dollars; Newt Pays Some Loot; Newt's Gonna Try...And Write it Off!; Gingrich on the Dole; Newt: On His Way Out?) -- and that's just in last few months.

There's no question that Gingrich will ultimately take an early retirement -- especially now that he realizes the disloyal opposition is angry enough to actually organize against him. Paranoia runs deep, and Gingrich's lust for power coupled with his fear of "shadows in the night" will push him to make mistakes.

But it won't be the mistakes he's about to make re the budget and tax bills that will be the cause of his leavetaking. No, Newt's place was set at the table of has-beens long ago -- the day he began planning GOPAC which, in the end, sealed his reputation in the relentlessly unforgiving minds of the electorate. Gingrich failed so completely as a symbol and as a leader who could be respected that he was left with only fear as a basis for power. Ruling by intimidation works only so long.

If Newt Gingrich had been a leader he would have stepped down quietly and with dignity almost immediately after he was caught laundering charitable contributions used later for his own personal political gain. Even Nixon was respected for knowing when to quit. But the Speaker, awed by his own ego, chose to take a course similar to that of the school-yard bully -- deny and lie. That did not sit well with America, and certainly not with his Republican colleagues who began to plot his downfall even as he pretended his $300 thousand get-out-of-jail-free card was nothing more than a reimbursement to the House Ethics Committee.

Everyone is embarrassed. Everyone.

The only thing that saved Newt this time was the bumbling nature of the coup, and the fact that the White House is not pushing for his exit. Newt staying put is the best thing for Democrats as Republicans bear him like a cross in the next Congressional election. Can you imagine the glee of the DNC as they trot out Newt's record for the voters next year?

Ninety-five percent of Republican House members know that leaving Newt in the Speaker's chair will threaten their majority come 1998 -- and make no mistake -- self-preservation is the rule in politics. There is almost no chance that the most unpopular politician in America will lead the party next year. It's only a matter of time, and finding the right replacement.

How can you tell? Well here's a clue that the plot still thickens. Last Thursday, at the closed-door meeting of Republican lawmakers, someone made a tape recording of the "proceedings." That someone is just one of dozens who continue to meet in back room bars plotting the overthrow of Gingrich. The tapes of the meeting which supposedly fused the Speaker's power, and now in the hands of Fox News, reveal that Gingrich and his henchmen orchestrated a kind of revival meeting where errant conspirators rose to pillory themselves for daring to challenge the Speaker.

Tom DeLay, the House GOP whip, is heard stammering -- telling his fellows what happened during a dissident get-together...

Stunning.

John Boehner, Chairman of the House Republican Conference, was suspect number one for being the "tapester." He rushed to deny it saying:

Boehner has it right and wrong. Someone taped the meeting because their is no openness, trust and good will on the Republican side of the House. It is Newt Gingrich who threatens openness, trust and good will, not only among Republicans, but among all Americans who now hold politicians in disrespect so deep as to turn Democracy into a myth.

To be fair, Newt Gingrich is not the only scoundrel who lied, manipulated the law, and got away with it. Many Democrats and Republicans alike can join him in dishonor. But Gingrich, by a wide margin, introduced a new kind of sickness into the game. He flaunts it.

The masses may be asses - -but they ain't stupid.

Only a raving megalomaniac could believe that the average Jane and Joe would buy Newt's adolescent excuses for deeds most foul.

It's only a matter of time, Newt. Only a matter of time.


© 1998, 1997, American Politics Journal Publications Inc.