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American Politics Journal Predicted A Bush Win in Iowa Straw Poll... But
Bush Falls Short!

"Iowans love bad boys and girls -- which explains Dole and Forbes," says Mac MacArthur

Sunday, August 15th, 1999 -- NEW YORK/AMES, Iowa -- On Thursday, American Politics Journal predicted George W. Bush Jr. as the victor -- by a landslide -- at Iowa's Straw Poll yesterday.

Bush won, all right -- but by 7% less than we thought.

As a matter of fact, if Bush hadn't dumped a last minute chunk of cash into his Iowa team's coffers, Forbes might well have come within two or three points of him, and perhaps even won!

The big losers of the day were Orrin Hatch, Dan Quayle, Alan Keyes, Lamar Alexander and Pat Buchanan.

Mac MacArthur tells us that after talking with Buchanan staff, he is almost certain that Buchanan will make his run under the Reform Party banner -- if he can get the nod from Perot. "With Buchanan polling only 7% and being pushed out by the likes of Gary 'Li'l Satan' Bauer, Pat has no choice but to look yonder toward those $16 million in federal matching funds the Reform Party has earned for the 2000 race," said MacArthur from his cell phone inside the main tent of the Iowa Straw Poll.

Hatch, Quayle and Alexander will almost certainly drop out, although Quayle is so delusional that he might just stay in for the sole purpose of demonstrating that he's as dumb as he looks.

Even Alan Keyes, the Bible-beating African-American Republican professional speechmaker, beat Quayle and Hatch -- which must be killing those two! Alexander is already making piggy noises that he'll throw in the towel and instead hope for a White House appointment should the GOP capture 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

It's all smiles now -- but you know that (l.-r.)
George DumBellYou Bush Jr., Liddy Dole
and $teve Forbes are dreaming about pulling
out the shivs...

That leaves Steve Forbes, Liddy Dole and BabyBush to fight it out in future.

MacArthur talked to Marilyn Quayle, asking her how it felt to see that Quayle couldn't muster even 5% of the votes last nights. Mrs. Quayle just stared at him with those Mongolian eyes, then strode away, and then, unexpectedly, whirled around and flipped Mac the proverbial "bird" on second thought. Mac tells us he was hysterical with laughter.

Gary Bauer, who shouldn't have received more than 5 votes total, was the bellwether of the insane Iowan. He got 2,115 votes out of nearly 25,000 for claiming to be the closest to Jesus (not to mention the best bigot the GOP had to offer). Mac asked Bauer, "Well Gary, even though you're only about 5 feet high -- I bet you feel 6 foot 6 tonight!" Bauer walked up to Mac -- nearly nose to Adam's apple -- and said, "Listen buster, I'll win this thing yet.  And people like you will be shipped off to Red China where you belong."

Elizabeth Dole, who got the "I feel sorry for you" votes, appeared on stage with Bob Dole (of Viagra fame) and flirted with the audience, trying to convince them she had a snowball's chance in Hell to beat Gore or Bradley in 2000. Dole had effectively lined up nearly 3,500 women who still think and sachet around like they're 23 -- but are really 70.  She had them bussed in from women's clubs, garden centers, craps tables and seedy bars around the state. But Dole paid a price -- a whopping $37,000 bar bill for the hard liquor those women consumed in less than two hours. Many of the women talked to Mac. They said they were there for the "free booze" and "to pick up wealthy hog farmers" or "to party, honey!" One lady told Mac that no one in Dole's group thought she had a chance, but "what the f*&%k -- that Bush is some hunka man!"

Steve Forbes was having a grand old time with the cameramen, producers and "best boys" working for the networks. He was tanked himself, and kept repeating "I wish Daddy was here to see them -- I mean this!"  Forbes told MacArthur, " I closed in on that spoiled brat Bush.  And next time I'm gonna trounce him." Forbes -- in such a good humor that his campaign manager kept handing him blank checks that Forbes signed one after the other -- told Mac that he had a secret set of commercials ready to expose Bush for "what he is." When Mac asked what that was, Forbes started giggling hysterically, plucked a $100 dollar bill from his wallet, rolled it into a tube and started making grunting and snorting sounds as he shoved it up his nose and then fell on the floor writhing in laughter.

Mac couldn't get an interview with BabyBush, who already has a crack team of Secret Service men surrounding him as if he were Bill Clinton. "Well, he IS Bill Clinton," Mac told us over the speakerphone. "Wait until he tells America that he didn't snort, only rubbed it on his gums."

Toward the end of the evening, Mac strolled over to his buddy Orrin Hatch who was tinkling away at the piano. "Come on, Orrin, baby," coaxed Mac, "let's give 'em something they won't soon forget." With that Hatch launched into an intro of "You have a friend in Jesus" and Mac sang it straight through -- while Gary Bauer sulked in a corner.

As the sun came up in Iowa this morning, one could see Elizabeth Dole walking arm and arm with what appeared to be a 22-year-old football player and her husband Bob. Dole waved at Mac, who was smoking the last cigarette on the porch of his hotel. "Can you imagine," she yelled, "three hands!"

-- The Editors


Here are the final tallies posted against our projections:
CANDIDATERESULTOur Prediction
George Bush Jr.
31%
38% - so Bush did poorly as far as we're concerned!
Steve Forbes
21%
17% - Steve did better than our poll respondents thought.
Elizabeth Dole
14%
9% - Dole amassed lots of drunks to vote for her.
Gary Bauer
9%
6% - Bauer picked up 3% by talking in tongues.
Pat Buchanan
7%
8% - Pat did less well than we predicted.  Good!
Lamar Alexander
6%
4% - Lamar pulled 2% better than we thought.  Good job, loser!!!
Alan Keyes
5%
5% - Keyes was easy and we were right on. 
Dan Quayle
4%
6% - again, we gave Quayle more respect than he deserved.
Orrin Hatch
2%
2% - Hatch got 558 out of 23,685 -- the same ratio as Mormons to Americans

For more information on the American Politics Journal poll,
contact Morrie Friendly at
(888) 837-0070
or email the American Politics Journal Poll team at
poll@americanpolitics.com

Copyright © 1999, 1998, 1997, 1996, American Politics Journal Publications.

  • All rights reserved.
  • ISSN No. 1523-1690