A Lazy Last Quarter for Congress

A Lazy Last Quarter for Congress

"As usual, the news that interests America will come from the freak shows orchestrated all Summer by Republican leadership staff."

Fred Thompson begins his "Hunt for Red October"
September 2nd 1997: National Airport will be crowded today with rested and tan congresspeople making their way back to Pennsylvania Avenue and the final leg of the first session of the 105th Congress.

So far it looks like an easy quarter ahead.

With budget reconciliation over, house leaders will zero in on clearing all 13 appropriation bills before October 1st -- the beginning of the new fiscal year. But a short-term continuing resolution may be needed to extend deliberation beyond October 1st because six weeks may not be enough time to work out all the kinks. None of the leadership expects a "government shutdown" replay this year and a continuing resolution, if needed, should sail through.

You can bet our elected officials will be burning the midnight oil. Why? Because they want to be off for an early Thanksgiving recess -- so early that some say it could begin October 15th!, but a friend in the Speaker's office says early November is a more realistic target. With the 1998 campaign season seemingly already in full swing, members are eager to spend as much time at home as possible.

The President

The "eager-beaver-leavers" may get a surprise relative to the spending bills if President Clinton decides to surgically excise them using his new line-item veto power. But some suggest that the President hasn't selected any targets as yet. Others feel that upcoming court tests of line item veto constitutionality will lower his sights for now.

Hot among other priorities to tackle before adjournment is the Transportation Reauthorization bill that determines which road projects get underway in member's home districts. With election fever just around the corner, house members will be fighting for every inch of tar they can accumulate to please local voters and road contractors -- often heavy campaign contributors.

The White House will be pushing its education agenda, but will focus primarily on continuing its fast-track authority to quicken consideration of international trade agreements. Grumblings from both sides of the aisle -- especially from Republicans -- might result in some short-lived fireworks over this issue, but in the long run big business will get what it wants -- speedier movement on trade agreements that affect their bottom lines.
Some headier House leaders have telegraphed that they may push the Christian Coalition's idea to sanction foreign nations which tolerate religious persecution. This issue could provide a bigger bump in the road than some predict. I'd bet this one gets sidetracked until mid-second session next year, closer to election day and closer to the hearts of Christian diehards who'll be eager in the voting booth come November.

A few defense authorization bills languish awaiting final action, but not much more of substance will hit the floor this year.

As usual, the news that interests America will come from the freak shows orchestrated all Summer by Republican leadership staff.

Where's my drool cup?
First will be Senate infighting on the nomination of former Republican Governor Bill Weld as Ambassador to Mexico. Weld has been trying to move Jesse Helms off his position denying Weld a hearing. Helms seems dug in, but Republicans are worried that the focus on Helms may put them in a bad light. The nation isn't ready to deny Weld his "day in court" just because some over-the-hill dictator has the power to zap his confirmation hearing. Word is, that some Republicans will move to go around Helms and bring the matter to a vote on the Senate floor. That's no easy feat. The procedure is complicated and must be well-timed. If that doesn't happen, Weld is out and Helms wins.

The Second, and most fertile side show will be simultaneous hearings in both the House and Senate on campaign finance. The primary goal of the hearings, which are controlled in large measure by the Republican leadership, will be to embarrass Democrats and cost them votes. But Senator Fred Thompson and Representative Dan Burton who chair the committees will soon find themselves and the GOP mired in scandal -- mostly over the quid-pro-quos offered American business in exchange for campaign cash. Up until now, Thompson has focused on foreign money flowing into the DNC and mined by the President and the Vice President. But even here the Republicans were stung badly when it was revealed that former GOP Chairman Haley Barbour had floated down Kowloon Bay in Hong Kong with Chinese businessmen who ended up lending millions to his party -- and losing nearly $800,000 in the process.

Dan Burton won't be smiling for long

But Republicans take a real chance as the Senate side begins to hear from big American business. Democrats have some surprises lined up, and the fact that Republicans raise substantially more money from business won't help them as they find themselves mucked up in what could prove the scandal of the century. If the committees really do their jobs, Americans will wake up to realize that business controls a lot more policymakers than we thought. Of course, both Republican Chairmen will try to "keep the lid on" and they may get help from Democrat committee members who also want the system to remain as is. My experience is that witch hunts -- no matter how well orchestrated -- tend to get out of hand. Any slip in control could spell doom for both sides, but Republicans are in the most slippery slope here.

The most important movements in Congress will be "behind the scenes debates" over just how to frame top issues for next year's mid-term elections. Look for Democrats to toy with focusing on the disparity between rich and poor in America. Labor Secretary Alexis Herman may have baited the hook this past weekend as she began to troll on this issue. Pollsters haven't begun their annual briefings to elected officials as yet, but you can be sure that a "rich against poorer" strategy is under consideration on both sides of the aisle with Democrats attacking and Republicans defending.

Issues that may frame the election next November won't be taken up this year. Topping that list is campaign finance reform. While neither side wants reform, both could be forced into some fluid plan that placates America once voters hear the "facts" about the current system and its widespread abuses. Look for Senator Mitch McConnell's plan for full and instant reporting to gain favor although it will do absolutely nothing to reform abusers. In my estimation, the McCain/Feingold bill which would ban soft money and make it more difficult to influence lawmakers is dead on arrival although the two Senators threaten to hold up nearly all legislation until their bill is considered.

You'll also see some huffing and puffing on late term abortion, but the President's almost-certain veto should kill any substantial movement on such bills.

In short, a big yawn for the rest of 1997, and some fireworks on the sidelines.

Business as usual up and down Pennsylvania Avenue.