Friday, September 25, 1998 --- New York (APJP) -- The dust is finally settling on the House Judiciary Committee's video "release" of Clinton's testimony before one of Starr's grand jury -- or is it just starting to get kicked up in unpredictable and worrisome ways for the GOP?

Poll results released yesterday and today have been widely characterized in the media as a "backlash" aimed at congressional Republicans, GOP members of House Judiciary Committee and Ken Starr -- and the media is reporting the result with mixed signals of their own.

The CNN/AllPolitics/Time web site characterized their poll results as " a temporary backlash ," while The New York Times chose to lead with "President Clinton's standing with Americans has rebounded broadly." They also interpreted the results of their own Times/CBS poll as "stirrings of a backlash against the Republican-controlled Congress and the House Judiciary Committee in particular."

Stirrings?

Try "the last straw." Other "opinion leaders," including more than a few one would not expect to say so, are interpreting the poll results as widespread resentment by the public to smear tactics.

Face it -- this should be no surprise to anyone. What some press outlets characterize as an "apparent resurgence" is in fact the result of two moves that infuriated the public: first, a pornographic "referral" report released by Starr on the false premise of a "need" for graphic detail ; then a videotape released by partisan Republicans with the intent of "death-by-a-thousand-cuts" political assassination of Bill Clinton.

These could not have been a more critical miscalculation.

"Apparent resurgence?" How about outright rage at the GOP elite cadre, so busy trying to take down the President at the expense of all else that they have proven beyond any doubt their lack of interest in any other issues!

And it gets worse for the far right: many in the "opinion elite" who harbor little love for Clinton and usually align themselves to the right are now decrying the political tactics of the Starr-Hyde-Gingrich axis.

The so-called "backlash," an inevitable manifestation of Lewinsky overkill, is the result of a strategy that conservatives bet the house on -- at their own peril and at the expense of the public interest.

Granted, this Republican strategy guarantees success at getting out the most polarized anti-Clinton voters in November. But the flip side is that this strategy casts the GOP as the party of hate and intolerance, out to do nothing but flog scandal and oust a popular, twice-elected President whose policies and positions resonate with the majority of Americans.

And key Republicans continue to play their typecast parts. Henry Hyde said in so many words that he doesn't care what his constituents think and will do as he sees fit as chairman of the House Judiciary Committee to "fulfill [his] mandate." Of course, Hyde is lying -- every politician reads poll results and tracks calls and letters coming from constituents.

So the Republicans are left with little choice but to expand the Judiciary Committee's impeachment inquiry mandate into other "scandals." There is no doubt in our mind that we will see a concerted effort to include all of Kenneth Starr's "dry wells" -- Travelgate, Filegate, Whitewater, Fostergate -- added to the inquiry.

Of course, this is nothing more than an attempt to once again tear into the President's public integrity -- as well as yet more pandering to the hard right. There is also no doubt they will try to throw the campaign finance mess into the mix in the hope of painting both Clinton and Gore as crooks. This, too, carries a huge element of risk -- the Republicans have arguably more dirty laundry than the Democrats (including funny money shenanigans involving the highest echelon of the GOP covered extensively last summer in American Politics Journal) and are far more worried about the ramifications of campaign-money "scorched earth" news stories that might land key Republican leaders in major legal hot water.

And there are now signs of stress and concern within the GOP. One of our Washington sources tells us that Republicans are paying careful attention to one crucial, high-profile race this November.

It pits Alfonse D'Amato -- chairman of the Senate Banking Committee and the man who headed up the Senate's investigation into the Whitewater matter, a politically motivated hatchet job that failed to find a scintilla of wrongdoing on the part of the Clintons -- against Brooklyn Congressman Chuck Schumer in a race for D'Amato's seat. Schumer trounced Geraldine Ferraro in the primary, but was looked upon as a long-shot to oust D'Amato.

Until yesterday.

Most of the polls show Schumer slightly ahead of D'Amato. But a poll of likely voters statewide released today shows Schumer ten percentage points ahead of D'Amato. And D'Amato's people are starting to sweat over another development in the race: Schumer has effectively "hijacked" D'Amato's own commercials being run in New York City -- and rescripted them for broadcast upstate to show people in usually stalwart D'Amato country how "Senator Pothole" is saying one thing to Town and the opposite to Country.

Many in the GOP feel that defeat of the Senator, who remains a powerful kingmaker within the GOP, would be seen as a serious setback to the party, even if they gain seats in the Senate. D'Amato is a popular, high-profile Republican within the party, much beloved for "shooting from the lip" and fundraising acumen.

But more importantly, some within the Republican inner circle are looking at this race as a "litmus test" for continuing the witch hunt, especially given D'Amato's failure to nail down any dirt on the President during his Whitewater hearings, which ended not with partisan hand-wringing over a lack of smoking gun, John Dean, or "Deep Throat," but a whimper. A loss for D'Amato in November would be a vote of no confidence in the continued Clinton investigations from the largest state on the east coast and the financial center of the world.

Given the "sudden backlash," Republicans now worry that if voters tell D'Amato to "get out of Dodge," the clear message concerning impeachment to GOP members of the House and Republican Senators in the northeast up for election in 2000 would be a simple, two-word message:

Back off.

-- The Editors