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Dave "Doctor" Gonzo is hunkered down in a secluded hotel suite in the most appropriate city from which to cover election night -- Las Vegas. He has at his disposal six televisions, three phones, a rented cell phone, a fax, his lovely wife and political analyst Krysztyna, a case of Ommegang Ale flown in from Cooperstown, a case of Saranac Black and Tan, a case of Moritz Winter Brew, three cases of Poland Spring water, seven pounds of coffee from the Porto Rico Trading Company in New York, an espresso maker, three grocery bags of fresh fruit, seven grocery bags full of junk food, and the Powerbook of Love running MacOS8.5. His election dispatches will be issued daily until the Wednesday after election day.

"The Doc" is a former disgruntled senior executive of a large media company that went south when it was bought out by another large media company. He is now a high-priced consultant in the beer and communications industries. His political rants appear exclusively in American Politics Journal.

Dave "Doctor" Gonzo's
Election DIS-Patch
With Stiggs's Betting Line

November 2, 1998 -- LAS VEGAS -- After a restful Sunday of pundits, politicians and paid hitmen and women yammering about the upcoming elections, The Doc ventured out for an afternoon of blackjack -- and hit it "big," with total gain of forty bucks on an initial wad of a hundred.

No, The Doc does not use one of those complex card counting systems. It was just sound fundamental understanding of the game -- and three particularly lucky hands in a two-hour period.

The Doc's only serious regret -- that he had been playing the $100 table instead of the $2 table -- of course, with his luck, he probably would have been dealt loser hand after loser hand at the big-ticket table.

Meanwhile, back at the suite to die for, The Doc and his wife enjoyed a quiet and restful night with no discussion of things political. The Sunday Squawk had been more than enough.

DATELINE: LAS VEGAS -- Okay, politics fans, how about a little local color?

The gubernatorial race here is a slam-banger -- two very viable candidates, a higher ratio of issues-to-attack-ads than seen in high profile contests, and a real horse race.

Governor Bob Miller (D) is retiring. The Democrat contender: Las Vegas mayor Jan Laverty Jones. Upsides: an aggressive campaigner able to tout the successes Vegas has had during her tenure. Lots of labor support and liked among the Vegas business community. And she's a major babe to boot. Downside: got into the race on the late side. The Republican: Kenny Guinn. Upsides: a retired utility executive effectively touting his business expertise, with strong crossover appeal and a high telegenic quotient. Downside: Jones has played a very good game of catch-up.

And the senate race is even hotter -- two-term Democrat Harry Reid faces Vegas local hero John Ensign, a popular republican in the normally Democrat-leaning Vegas. The pattern isn't unlike the gubernatorial race -- Ensign's crossover appeal vs. Reid's strong record and labor support. Reid seemed to be clearly ahead a few weeks ago, but this race has tightened up at the home stretch.

STIGGS'S BETTING LINE: Jones by one, Ensign by one. Hey, cut me some slack -- we love our hometowners!

DATELINE: NORTH CAROLINA -- When the numbers in the contest between incumbent Senator Lauch Faircloth and democrat challenger John Edwards started looking bad for the first-term senator, the Faircloth team decided to hire political consultant Art Finkelstein, whose hard-hitting attack ads for Al D'Amato six years ago played a large part in a third victory for "Senator Pothole." Finkelstein's strategy, one he has essentially used in all of his major campaigns: portray the challenger as "hopelessly liberal."

Preliminary polls, however, show that the ads have had little effect on conservative voters -- and, like the GOP national ads assailing President Clinton, may have backfired, emboldening Democrats to vote. And a "counterattack" ad by Edwards pointing out the Faircloth voted over 200 times with Clinton and asking "Is Faircloth liberal?" seems to have had some effect on undecideds and moderates.

A loss for Faircloth would also be a major blow to the reclusive and reputedly eccentric Finkelstein, who has been looked upon highly by many in the conservative wing of the GOP.

STIGGS'S BETTING LINE: Down-the-middle even.

DATELINE: THE BIBLE BELT -- Well, well! Looks like the Christian Coalition is running into some trouble with their voter guides.

Seems a growing number of ministers, pastors and clergymen and -women are refusing to distribute the allegedly "nonpartisan" voter guides which overwhelmingly support GOP candidates.

I remember something in the Bible about "bearing false witness."

But I digress.

A number of Christian Coalition coordinators and volunteers have been getting unfavorable feedback on the voter guides on a number of fronts from clergy: some dismiss the Christian Coalition as a lobbying mill, others have expressed concerns that they may lose their tax exemption, and many others have openly objected to the overwhelming support for Republican candidates.

Another factor is a mail campaign by the far more moderate Interfaith Alliance, which blasted the voter guides as "seeking to transform houses of worship into precinct halls for espousing partisan politics."

Ouch. And The Doc hasn't even mentioned that the Christian Coalition is still in the middle of a lawsuit over the voter guides brought by the FEC.

STIGGS'S BETTING LINE: More voters turn to TV Guide than the Christian Coalition guide to make choices on Election Day.

FLASH!!: QUINNIPIAC, NEW YORK -- The highly reliable Quinnipiac College poll puts Chuck Schumer ahead of Al D'Amato by a 50%-to-42% margin.

STIGGS'S BETTING LINE: Changed to Schumer by 4 -- I should have listened to the Doc.

DATELINE: THE BELTWAY -- The savvy pundit Stewart Rothenberg has yet again lowered his estimates for GOP congressional gains: "My projection over the past couple of weeks of a GOP gain of six to eight seats in the House now strikes me as too high.... All of that suggests only minor changes in the House -- with anything from a Democratic gain of a seat or two to a GOP gain of six or seven seats most likely. In the Senate, the increased risk for two GOP incumbents -- Al D'Amato (N.Y.) and Lauch Faircloth (N.C.) -- probably lowers the ceiling on possible Republican gains.... [I expect] a GOP gain of just a single seat to as many as three."

STIGGS'S BETTING LINE: I'm staying with GOP plus seven in the House, but changing the Senate to GOP plus two.

DATELINE: CARSON CITY, NEVADA -- The hookers are in an uproar following a decision handed down last week by Nevada's attorney general.

Prostitutes working in at least two Storey County brothels -- and possibly other locations in the state -- will be required to produce more than just a rent receipt to prove they're Nevada residents and legally eligible to vote.

The flap began when Charles Porchia, a candidate for Storey County Sheriff, filed formal challenges to nearly 200 voters listed on county rolls whose "home" addresses matched those of Mustang Ranch brothels.

Porchia was quoted as saying "This is the first time in 30 years that the brothels have been stopped from using illegal residences to vote," he said.

And possibly the last, if suits challenging the ruling stand up in court.

It's a safe bet that there's at least one PAC Porchia won't be hitting up next time -- that is, if there is a next time!

    --Dave "Doctor" Gonzo

*DISCLAIMERS: All of Stiggs's Betting Line "point spreads" are in percentage points between the winner and runner-up, either rounded DOWN to the nearest perscentage point or expressed as "less than one percent."

Stiggs's Betting Line is provided for the information and entertainment of American Politics Journal readers. It does not reflect the official odds posted at any licensed gambling facility in the state of Nevada and does not constitute an endorsement of gambling. But it hasn't stopped The Doc from placing a bet with Stiggs on his last visit to Vegas that Chuck Schumer will kick Al D'Amato's sorry butt by at least three percent of the popular vote!


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