Classic commentary from 1996
The Balanced Budget: A Myth That Rivals Any
by Jeff Koopersmith

Do you truly believe that the President and Congress will balance the budget over seven years?

Not a chance.

Balanced budgets, when they have occurred, were largely a function of serendipity and not a reflection of good planning. Historically, balanced budgets happen either in times of unexpected lower demand on federal budgets, or accompany large tax increases and a fast-growing economy which yield more revenue than expected.

Like our families, Congress is tempted to spend what it thinks it will take in. Tax revenues are like a Gold MasterCard in Washington. Like us, when a crisis occurs the government is unprepared and must spend more than they took in to serve the people. These crises, real or manufactured, are best met the next year by tax hikes to pay them off. However, if the people are restless and anti-tax, like they have been since 1978, the Congress holds off raising taxes and incurs more interest and more debt.

As Caspar Weinberger, now Chairman of Forbes, points out, Congress and the White House must, for the next seven years, be prepared to appropriate moneys without increase; all budget projections must be fairly accurate; there can be no disaster or war which might strain the Treasury; and other nations, which may rely on our help, or effect our economy must remain economically stable.

This is only half-true. The President and Congressional leaders also have the option of meeting these challenges with an up-front tax increase. That would keep the budget balanced as well.

Do you buy that?