American Politics Journal

Newt... Obsolete??
by Jeff Koopersmith

Monday, March 31st, 1997 -- NEW YORK (APJP) -- Is Newt Gingrich obsolete?

Well, not yet -- and he's fighting back in China with vague threats to defend Taiwan.

But is it too late?

Lots of people, Democrats and Republicans alike, wrote off Newt Gingrich -- several times -- during the past year. Yet he lingers as Speaker of the House, despite the odds and notwithstanding several instances of what seemed to be inexcusable conduct from a man third in line for presidential succession.

The distress for Newt started with his engineering the shutdown of the federal government, an adolescent display of one-upmanship over the budget. Next, Gingrich sniveled about his shabby seat on Air Force One. Then came charges -- and admissions -- of use of tax-free charitable corporations to raise political money.

Now, months later, the Speaker has still not paid his $300,000 "assessment" to the taxpayers -- and is said to be plainly waiting until the heat dies down so that he can get away with using donor money to clear the tab.

It's true that Democrats reveled in his personal ordeal and took every opportunity to highlight his "crimes and misdemeanors." Among those many stabs directed at Newt were reports that he had brought divorce demands to his wife while she was hospitalized for cancer; that he was a laughingstock as a history professor and had been forced out of his teaching job; that he had only paid back alimony and child support under threat of arrest; that his TV "college" course, "Renewing American Civilization", was a pathetic joke; and of course, an under-reported story that he is severely depressive.

With a track record like that, who wouldn't be?

Mr. Gingrich was forced to run for cover and, until last week, virtually under self-imposed house arrest. Mystically, he began to re-emerge as a "moderate Democrat". He began backing away from his and the GOP's promises for income tax relief. This threw the 100-plus conservatives in the House into a furor, which subsequently forced Newt to back off and invent the excuse that his broken promise was only a pretense to lure the White House into an awkward budget negotiation later on. Then he announced plans to visit China via Taiwan -- an unfortunate route from Beijing's perspective. He personally invited Jesse Jackson to sit in his box at the State of the Union, and asked Democrat leader Dick Gephardt to accompany him to China.

So what keeps Newt from getting ditched by his own party?

Isn't it obvious? Money.

Mr. Gingrich is credited with directly or indirectly raising more than $100 million for the Republican Party and its candidates. In Washington, that's not only political capital, it's just plain capital.

Many, however, believe that even his hundred million dollar IOU won't save the battered Speaker from a sooner, rather than later, departure as the mouthpiece for the GOP. Gingrich has alienated both the moderate and conservative wings of his own party. Rep. Dick Armey (R-TX), a Speaker hopeful himself, has been quietly swiping at Newt for months, and not-so-quietly blasted him for being a turncoat on the tax issue. Senator Trent Lott (R-MS) verbally clobbered him as well, and Ralph Reed of the Christian Coalition didn't hide his frustration with Gingrich either. Even Pat Buchanan declared that Gingrich should "lead, follow or get out of the way."

If one believes insider reports about behind-the-scenes drama in Gingrich's own office, then the plot thickens. What's going on is one Mr. Joe Gaylord -- spinmeister and, lately, chief Gingrich ax man, who has been labeled the "Rasputin who bewitched the wayward Speaker," by Hanna Rosin writing in New Republic. Arianna Huffington, the alluringly charming belle of the conservative ball, attacked Gaylord as "The Man Behind Gingrich's Fall" and accused him of a "Stalinist" purge which included the ouster of four players pivotal to Newt's rise: Jeff Eisenach, a premier architect of Gingrichian theory, former Gingrich press secretary Tony Blankley, pollster Frank Luntz and Vin Weber. Gaylord is the man who urged Gingrich to sign a $4.5 million book deal which he later backed out of under investigative pressure from House colleagues and Republican chieftains.

Gaylord, by the way, was paid $240,000 by the National Republican Campaign Committee, $26,000 from the Republican National Committee, and a whopping $350,000 from Friends of Gingrich during the past election cycle.

The list of possible Gingrich replacements includes Dick Armey, Tom DeLay, John Bonior, John Kasich, and even the unswervingly loyal Bill Paxon -- all denying their disloyalty to the Speaker even as they wistfully contemplate picking up the House gavel themselves.

Perhaps the most telling indication of the unraveled Newt story is gossip that Republican Capitol Hill staffers have set up a pool -- complete with code names for participants -- betting on the day Mr. Gingrich will resign. If you want to participate just call "Al Hamilton" -- the pool coordinator in Washington. The entry fee is $15 with an initial $100 bet.