American Politics Journal -- GOP Brush Fires Becoming Meltdown



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GOP Brush Fires Becoming Meltdown -- Part One
by David J. Gonzo

Jan. 19, 2000 -- WASHINGTON (AmpolNS) -- No, the mainstream press hasn't picked up on it.

No, the Sunday Morning Oracle don't talk about it.

No, you don't see screaming headlines on news web or gossip sites.

But there is the distinct sound of wailing and gnashing of teeth emanating from 310 First Street S.E. in our nation's capitol. That is the address of the Republican National Committee -- and there is more than a small bit of fear that the GOP is melting down on a number of fronts.

With less than ten months left until Election 2000, the party is racing to put out a number of small brush fires -- that are appearing faster than they can stomp them out, and generating enough heat to threaten an Election Day meltdown.

Over the next couple of weeks, we will be looking at the problems confronting the GOP going into what may be the most exciting election in decades.

One of the toughest issues confronting the self-proclaimed "Party of Lincoln" (why do we think he would've become a Democrat years ago?) in the last month has been the number of Republican House members who have announced that they are retiring.

...not to mention the clumsy way at least one handled the decision.

Florida Rep. Tillie K. Fowler announced that she will keep her pledge to serve four terms, this being her last -- but this followed an announcement last fall that she was considering breaking that pledge. U.S. Term Limits, the most influential of the term-limits advocacy organizations, immediately ran an intensive campaign of nasty ads accusing her of political dishonesty -- which appear to have been the primary factor in her decision to keep her word, despite her attempt at a counter-campaign (that backfired badly). Two years ago, her district would have been considered a pretty safe GOP district, but some politics watchers see possible vulnerability for the GOP in Fowler's district as the election draws nearer.

Meanwhile, Virginia Congressman Herb Bateman surprised nobody with his announcement that he plans to retire for health reasons -- but his fellow Virginian, Congressman Owen Pickett, also announced that he will not be seeking another term. Pickett's seat is relatively safe for the GOP, but Bateman's is a little less certain as the races for both the Republican and Democrat nomination for this district are both filling up fast -- and Dems in this district lean conservative.

Two of the most powerful players in the House -- both liked and respected on both sides of the aisle -- are retiring. Illinois' John Porter, who chairs the Labor/HHS subcommittee with the Appropriations Committee as well as the Congressional Human Rights Caucus, is retiring after nine terms. And Bill Archer of Texas, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, is doing the same.

And rumors persist that Oklahoma Rep. J.C. Watts may be leaving. Watts has come under intense criticism from some members of his own caucus for what is being called ineffectual leadership as chairman of the GOP Conference within the House, with some saying he maintains far too low a public profile. An article in last week's Roll Call reported that Speaker Dennis Hastert and Majority Whip Tom DeLay are intensely lobbying Watts to stay -- but our own sources say that Watts has become the target of a "whispering campaign" not unlike that started against Presidential candidate John McCain.

There is growing concern within the party that a number of other congressmen -- some in vulnerable districts -- are considering the option of not running for another term. A congressional staffer summed up the situation for one of our editors: "A lot of the [House GOP] rank and file feel like they're getting tarred with the 'party of impeachment, party of implausible partisan investigation' brush -- it's still being wielded by a few zealots way up in the [party] food chain. They know that for many swing voters the attempt to remove Clinton will be the real number one in November, and others will remember that their 1998 rebuke [in the form of Democrat gains in the House] was scoffed at by the House leadership when they bet the house, no pun intended, on ousting Clinton.

"If more Republican members of the House decide to retire, the GOP can't escape the perception that these politicians are abandoning not the House but a party encumbered with negative baggage. And that's what has the party high-ups scared."

Of course, it's too early to tell if retirement decisions will have an impact on the makeup of the 107th Congress, but the GOP is concerned enough about the issue that they are scrambling to address it. But there is also the danger of an image of desperation and panic, the appearance of which Hastert's and DeLay's attempt to keep Watts from quitting strongly bears.

The question is -- is it already too late for the GOP to stop more disillusioned representatives from throwing in the towel?