Jan. 23, 2000 -- NEW YORK (AmpolNS) -- The punditocracy descended on Iowa to prognosticate on tomorrow's caucuses.  They made much of Bradley's having been endorsed by the Des Moines Register and Alan Keyes's sudden "surge."

As if it would make a difference.

Fox News Sunday
Tony in Ethanol Land

Tony Snow sounded to be a little more relaxed than usual on FNS.  He and what he called "the most aggressive political reporters" on the tube were out in Des Moines taking a "behind the scenes" look at the Iowa Caucuses.  These included Des Moines Register reporter David Yepsen (who reported Gore's number's up a bit, Bush down a bit, and Forbes and Keyes edging up -- but neither he nor the rest of the gang mentioned today's NY Times story on the surge in Keyes support). Fox reporter Carl Cameron was outside a church supposedly showing how important the waning Christian Coalition is -- but why no reportage on turmoil within the CC in Iowa and a rival group handing out voter guides of their own? Fox White House man Jim Angle claimed that Bradley let Gore "define him" -- er, Jim, we thought his atrial fibrillation was "defining" him into leaving the race!  You need better sources.

Angle mentioned a super-energized Al Gore, then cut to video of Gore calling his "troops" on the telephone to thank them.  Sadly for Fox News, none of them had Chinese last names.  Cameron mentioned John McCain's "Straight Talk Express" and his "saying things people don't necessarily want to say" -- but also said that an anti-McCain rant against Janet Reno did not get published because McCain asked for it not to be published -- "he didn't really feel that way."  Huh? Cameron added that Steve Forbes is looked upon as the real conservative rival to Bush -- parroting Forbes's own rhetoric -- and was "harsh" in his criticism of Bush on reproductive rights.  Tony asked Yepsen about Gary Bauer, who had what he described as a "bizarre" press conference on abortion in a graveyard near the burial site of "Baby Isaiah," an infant found dead by the side of a road.

Yepsen said Bush, Forbes and Keyes would continue -- but Hatch looks in trouble.  Cameron said that Bush is hoping that McCain will "explode."  Angle claimed that the Bradley people are talking about the primaries.

We say they're talking about how there will no longer be a need to deal with them -- and before Super Tuesday.

The bumper for the following segment carried visuals of Bradley and the song "You Gotta have Heart."  We roared with laughter.

Following the break (AIM Funds, Monster.com, Flovent, Fox football), Tony welcomed Sen. Paul Wellstone (D-MN) and John Kerry (D-MA).  Tony asked Paul about the heart issue -- why didn't he speak to this earlier?  Paul said that Bradley's doctor said it was not serious.  Mara Liasson pressed the issue, comparing Bradley to the late Paul Tsongas.  Tony asked Kerry about the heart issue, and Kerry claimed that the Gore campaign did not consider it an issue, saying that what Gore wants to do for the nation and his own record of success were the real issues.  Kerry then did a litany-of-issues campaign stump speech for Gore.

Okay -- maybe it's true that Gore will win on those issues -- but Bradley is now so tied to the "heart" issue that he will not escape it.

Tony then asked Kerry about claims that Gore smoked pot frequently up until he ran for the House (without directly referring to the fact that Newsweek has quashed a story re. Gore's marijuana use -- and there are rumors in press circles that it was not run because there are sourcing problems), and Kerry said that Gore never qualified his admission he smoked pot.  Wellstone then talked about areas where there has not been progress (campaign reform, health care for kids) and said people yearn for someone who is "authentic" -- essentially an attack on Gore.  "This administration's record is terrible on campaign finance reform... do you think this administration's record on campaign finance reform is commendable?"  Kerry said, "of course we could do better," then, adding health and Medicare to the mix, blamed Republicans for a lack of progress.

Tony mentioned Bradley's "authenticity" -- then asked Paul about Bradley's "meeting with Al Sharpton" and "kissing his ring!"  You've gotta love it -- Tony's trying to turn Al Sharpton into Willie Horton!  Wellstone talked about diverse constituencies within the D3emocratic umbrella.

Tony asked if Gore goes all the way and Bradley "roughs him up enough," will Gore be hurt?  Kerry laughed it off -- then nailed Bradley for praising the Iowa "grassroots" caucuses, then slamming them!

Spots: IBM, TDWaterhouse, juno.com, statusfactory.com.

Tony then welcomed Bush spin queen Karen Hughes and McCain booster Mike Murphy. Tony played clips from a Bush and McCain ad.  Murphy said that Bush was inaccurate in his ad claim concerning the amount of McCain's proposed tax cuts, and Karen said that the commercial was accurate, i.e. McCain would tax certain benefits.  She even pulled up an unreadable piece of paper from some organization as proof.  Murphy slammed Bush for loophole exemptions for the country club set and quoted a Boston Globe editorial to boost his argument.  Hughes essentially claimed Murphy was committing distortion.

Murphy "Why did you pull it off the air?"

Hughes: "That is not the case, this is a newsreel ad."  Huh?  Sounds more like deny, deny, deny to us.

There was more catfighting -- but Murphy sounded relaxed, even amused.  Hughes sounded defensive and edgy.  Tony was clearly having as much fun as we were watching these two spinmeisters going at each other.  Murphy did get testy when Hughes interrupted a question from Tony -- and shut her up, saying, "I'll answer the questions about McCain, you answer the questions about Bush."

The talk turned to the surplus and other issues, which gave Murphy a chance to play up  McCain's position on paying down the debt.  He added that most of Bush's big supporters do not support McCain's reforms.

New Hampshire prediction from Hughes: "We intend to win New Hampshire."

Right, hon -- and Bush intends to "come clean" on his alleged Mexican cocaine binges.

Spots: Philip Morris, Fox Shows, petsmart.com.

Following the break: the CarlCam!  Carl was chatting with a bus driver for the Forbes campaign, asking him about Forbes' pay scale.  The driver's answer sounded like "No, but he loves Fox News!"

Now, why are we not surprised with this answer?  For what it's worth, we like the CarlCam -- but bring back the SpinTerpreter!  We need it in this campaign season!

Panel time!  Juan Williams complained about the weather, then mentioned that the Democrat governor of Iowa has not sided with either candidate and was working to build minority interest in participating in the election process.  Mara Liasson mentioned Bradley's "near-death experience" (is that a hint or what?).  Tony ran a clip of an energized Gore getting a standing ovation for announcing the voting schedule -- which Tony and the gang dissed him.  Brit Hume, looking less sour than usual, spoke warmly about sensing the presence of the Christian right.

Funny how they won't touch the story of the very real problems hard-right evangelical organizations face. Instead, Brit talked about a "rip-roaring" Keyes event, then said, "Poor Gary Bauer" as he talked about Keyes's superb oratorical skills and ability to energize the audience.

Juan talked about Keyes as the passionate speaker for conservative Christians.  He added that Forbes will do OK -- and mentioned all the free goods (t-shirts, books) people get at Steverino's events.  Juan also made the observation that the Iowa campaign has pushed Bush to address abortion -- and his position will hurt him among women.  Mara disagreed -- a little bit too vigorously -- saying that Bush was assuaging American women with a "don't worry" message.  We think Mara is dead wrong -- and too uncritical of Bush.

Tony then turned to the issue of Bradley's heart -- and the "cream soda" gambit (it contains caffeine, which he is supposed to steer clear from).  Mara was on target with her comments on Bradley's refusal to issue his medical records and parallels to Paul Tsongas.  Brit called the effect "radio silence" -- the heart issue static is drowning out the message.

This makes us squirm a little -- but Brit, you hit the nail on the head!

Juan said he talked to Bob Kerrey and said that under other circumstances, a 28% showing in the caucuses would be terrific.  Brit expressed the opinion that Bradley miscalculated on some issues.

Tony then turned to the "international" event of the week, and an issyue that the other pundit shows ignored: Sen. Jesse Helms speaking to the UN.  Mara said it was Amb. Hollbrooke's "brainchild."  Brit called Helms a "courtly old gentleman" to men "who thought he was the Antichrist."  Juan hinted at the "UN as global police force" issue.

But they all missed the point.  Holbrooke invited Helms to speak knowing full well that he would not only fail to ingratiate himself to the UN but show what a regressive Neanderthal Helms is.  If you look at the reaction of many of the ambassadors and read between he lines, there is a consistent message: "We don't take Helms and his ilk seriously, and we'll continue to side with and support President Clinton and his administration."  Helms fell for Holbroke's bait -- and managed to make himself not only less relevant than ever on the world stage, but a global laughingstock.

The McLaughIn Group
The King of Bombast kicks off his "Insanity 2000" Campaign

Issue one -- "Campaign 2000 Kick-off!"  John bored us with a bombastic assessment of the presidential race.

Is it a two-way race in the GOP?  Eric Felten talked too much about Forbes, citing stats (yawn), and Eleanor Clift called Eric "The Weather Channel" with his numbers.  Tony Blankley said that predicting caucus results accurately is just too tricky to attempt.   Jim Warren said ruefully that he wished he could say "Watch out for Gary Bauer" -- which got a huge laugh from the panel -- and then predicted doom for the eerie Bauer's campaign.  Tony said McCain made a mistake in running a "one-state" campaign.  Felten said that if Bradley loses by more than 20 points, he's in trouble.

Will the Clinton State of the Union Address be  a campaign address for Gore?  Warren sarcastically said yes -- but also pointed out that Clinton's approvals remain high.  Tony said that Gore could "make a fool of himself" by either not responding enough or responding too eagerly -- and we'll tell you that's exactly how the GOP will attack him.  Felten slammed big government like the right winger he is.

Who will come in third in Iowa?
Eric: Bauer
Eleanor: Bauer
Tony: could be anyone -- you cannot know at this point, maybe Keyes
Jim: Keyes
John: Keyes.

Predicted margins in the Democrat race --
Eric: 60-40
Eleanor: 62-38
Tony: blowout for Gore
Jim: 58-32
John: 54-46

Issue two: Political Potpourri!  Crippling issues no more (i.e. Bush's alleged lack of smarts -- he's shown excellent judgment in showing his faith, McCain's temper rap deflated with humor, McCain's hypocrisy on campaign reform exploded by full disclosure. Bradley's lack of credible electability destroyed by fundraising).

But Gore's "Clinton albatross" -- has it been undone by Gore's focusing on issues?

Good grief, John, Al's his own dog, and you know it.  In fact, Gore will distinguish himself from Bill Clinton -- and benefit from the Prez's support!

Jim said that the so-called character issue is not playing, and Gore is coming across as "goody two-shoes."  Tony claimed that "you can't get rid of the Clinton albatross... Hillary's out there."  Eleanor: "Nobody's gonna confuse Gore's personal conduct with Clinton's... and Bush's 'lightness of being' will come back to haunt him!"

Felten cited Bradley's aloofness and "bum ticker question... it legitimately hurts him."  John asked if Bradley admitted it because Gore "cut a deal with him?"   Warren had us laughing with his remark on the "Marcus Welby school of political analysis."

There was some speculation about McCain -- Jim said he's not doing as well in South Carolina as most people think.

New Hampshire Dem prediction --
Eric: Gore
Eleanor: Gore
Tony: Gore
Jim: Bradley
John: Gore

Then -- Hillary bashing time!  John made much of Hillary's answers to two talk show hosts about her personal life.  But the smear backfired on John as he played footage of a Buffalo talk show host asking Hillary if she'd ever cheated on Bill -- and the same talk show host lamely defending himself.  The fact -- Hillary hammered the weasel interviewer and  defused the questions.

Is the question about fidelity out of bounds?  Eric claimed Hillary's "fealty" to Bill hurt her among women in New York.  Eric, a whining hard righter, is 100% wrong -- New York women see Hillary as a woman who has faced and made tough choices, and has come out stronger.  Tony said it was a fair question since the Clintons went on 60 Minutes in '92.  John -- in a moment of lucidity -- mentioned rumors of Tony's ex-boss Newt's involvement in "assignations!"

Hey, John, you should've mentioned the credit card receipts!

Item: Bob Kerry quits!  How can the Dems win the Senate?  Tony said it's good news for the GOP. Eleanor said the Senate stays Republican. Jim said the reason for his retirement is that "he has a good friend in New York."  John said "he's done the math, it's no fun being in the minority."  The entire panel said that Nebraska will go completely Republican.

Predictions!
Eric: Rhode Island Senate seat stays Republican.
Eleanor: Hillary beats Rudy in the polls by spring.
Tony: HMO Patients Bill of Rights will pass Congress before Easter.
Jim: Michael Jordan leads Washington basketball team to championship.
John: China won't get into WTO under Clinton. 

CNN Lame Edition
Blitzer interviews robotic GOP candidate Forbes

We caught the first forty minutes Late Edition.

Wolf Blitzer first turned to Candy Crowley for a report from Iowa. Crowley, who looked very uncomfortable in the cold and wind, mentioned the Des Moines Register's endorsements of Bradley and Bush, then played the same video clips of Bush and Gore we've seen all morning.  Wolf congratulated Candy on receiving the prestigious duPont Award as Candy, frozen by the wind chill, looked like she wanted the segment over -- fast, before she caught frostbite.

Wolf then had Bill Schneider analyze the pre-caucus poll numbers -- and Schneider said that Keyes was doing better than predicted and could do even better than the numbers in the current poll show.  Wolf asked about New Hampshire, and Schneider said that McCain has gained on Bush (as if anyone is shocked) and Gore seems to have gained on Bradley (InterVoter.com forecast this two weeks ago).  Schneider said that Clinton's State of the Union Address would have an impact on the New Hampshire numbers.

We suspected that all the time spent with Candy and Bill was merely CNN marking time until Forbes Campaign officials could power up and reboot their robotic candidate, Steve Forbes.

Forbes gave the very same answers he had given to Russert on Eat the Prez earlier in the day as Wolf asked somewhat different questions -- in fact, his rote "politics as usual" answer sounded exactly like that he gave to Russert -- almost to the word!

Wolf played a clip of Bush on another CNN program commenting on negative tactics from Forbes "just like he did to Dole" in '96.  Forbes talked -- again -- about abortion, Roe v. Wade, Bush's record as Governor of Texas ("...there's not much there").  He claimed that Republicans lost in '96 due to a lack of substance -- and that Bush is "the same old same old... I am the true conservative candidate."

Of course, Forbes was giving the same old "same old" stock answers he gives in every interview.

Wolf then played a clip of "fellow New Jerseyite" Christie Whitman saying that Forbes was "tearing down" people and the party on Crossfire.  Forbes went into his preprogrammed tax, abortion and reform answer.  Will Forbes endorse Bush?  Forbes said that since he will get the nomination, the question is how much Bush will support him.

We didn't see Forbes blink.  Once.

After the break, Forbes got repetitive -- saying over and over that he would come in second in Iowa and that he would "emerge as the true conservative candidate," and that Bush was the personification of "politics as usual."

To a question from a caller about taxes and social security, Forbes did not address social security, instead doing his "scrap the tax code" one-step.

In all, Forbes had nothing new to say.  At all.  The producers of Lame Edition had completely wasted the viewers' -- and our -- time.

After the break, Wolf had near-unknown Iowa ex-governor Terry Branstad, a Bush man, and Sen. Chuck Hagel, a McCain man.  The chat was a lot more lively than the sleep-inducing Forbes segment, but still pretty boring and predictable -- far more civil than the Hughes-Murphy dust-up on FNS.  But at one point, Wolf read  a comment from a New Hampshire paper to Branstad that described Bush as a man with a famous name, "a fat wallet and a thin resume"  -- and he will leave the state the same way. Branstad looked uncomfortable and quickly switched gears. We loved it!

Hint to CNN: fire your guest bookers and take a lesson or two from Fox News Sunday and Face the Nation -- speed up the pace and get some exciting guests.