American Politics Journal -- Two Paper Tigers



Home • Latest • Archive • Search

Two Paper Tigers
Meet Rudy Giuliani... and the Chinese Military!
by Tamara Baker

Wednesday, May 17, 2000 -- ST. PAUL, MINNESOTA (AmpolNS) -- The recent election in Taiwan of a government that is not afraid to pursue democracy has, of course, triggered the usual bellicose rumblings out of Beijing, different from previous rumblings only in their intensity.

But can the People's Republic of China act on its threats to invade?

Not really...

...and everyone concerned in this affair -- namely, the leadership of China, Taiwan and the US, which would be forced to respond with nukes if China ever did retake Taiwan -- knows it!

Here's the scoop:

FACT #1 -- Invasion by sea is laughable. China's navy isn't even close to being a match for Taiwan's. If it did, Quemoy and Matsu, two Taiwanese-controlled islands that are much smaller and much closer to the mainland than is Taiwan, would have been taken by China decades ago. China simply doesn't have the ships big enough to transport even the relatively small forces needed to retake Quemoy and Matsu, much less transport a force large enough to have a prayer of surviving against the well-trained and extremely-well-equipped Taiwanese forces.

Fact #2 -- Aerial attacks are even more unlikely. As the Federation of American Scientists demonstrate on their website, China's much-vaunted 10-to-1 numerical superiority over the Taiwanese air fleet shrinks down to a mere 3-to-1 when Chinese planes actually within striking range of Taiwan are considered.

And, as the FAS overview of China's air power states, when one factors in the far inferior quality of China's aircraft versus Taiwan's, China will be extremely unlikely with 3-1 odds to successfully achieve air superiority against Taiwan.

What's more: the Chinese have not set up their airfields to defend against attacks from outside. Most major military powers tend to have their combat aircraft housed in "hardened" bunkers that can withstand substantial conventional and even airburst nuclear bomb attacks. In addition, the bunkers are widely spaced, so as to prevent the domino effect of one ignited plane or bunker setting fire to other bunkers. The bunkers also have
multiple runways and taxiways, useful in case the main runway is blocked or destroyed, as well as to provide extra access for refueling and other equipment.

China's airforce has none of these things. Their bunkers are not hardened against conventional bombs, much less nuclear ones, and their airports do not have multiple runways or taxiways.

The Chinese could, of course, decide to lob all 23 or so of their nukes at Taiwan purely out of spite, but the People's Republic, using the same warhead-fueling technology the US got rid of 40 years ago, can't have their rockets fueled and ready to go 24/7 -- because the fuel they use corrodes the missiles if left inside them. This means that the Chinese must spend a minimum of four to five hours prepping and fueling each rocket -- activity
which is easily detected by US spy satellites. The Taiwanese could ask for, and get, American aid in destroying those missiles before the Chinese got even halfway done fueling them.

The bottom line: The Big Red Dragon is really a Paper Tiger.

Let the Chinese holler about Taiwan all they want: they can't do anything, and they know it. Their leadership has to make the requisite growling noises to appease the hard-liners, but those with brains are privately and quietly working on detente with Taiwan.

Speaking of paper tigers, look what's happened to il Capo di Tutti Capi in New York City.

Less than two weeks ago, Rudy Giuliani was, to all appearances, large and in charge. Sure, his enforcers tended to be a touch trigger-happy (and plunger-happy), and his affairs were in the local press again, but the upstate voters whom Rudy was trying to woo didn't care how many blacks Rudy's boys offed or violated, and none of the upstate papers said boo about Rudy's openly squiring around Ms. Lategano and Nathan while his actual wife, Donna Hanover, sat fuming in Gracie Mansion.

That's all changed now.

First, Rudy announced that he has prostate cancer. This is actually the least of his worries, and may prove to be a blessing in disguise, as we'll see in a moment.

Next, Rudy put the kibosh on any sympathy he may have gotten from this announcement by slashing the prostate-cancer funds in the NYC city hospital budget!

Then, Rudy wss seen openly escorting his newest girlfriend, Judi Nathan, to official functions. This triggered a firestorm in the media and in the New York GOP.

The piece de resistance came last week, when Rudy announced Wednesday morning that he was seeking a separation from his wife. However, in what seems to be a classic display of his typical callousness, it seems that he neglected to tell his wife about this before he held his press conference.

Donna's reaction was swift. Rudy's press conference had barely ended when the media members were summoned to another press conference, this one held by the current Mrs. Rudolph Giuliani. Her face shone with the moisture of many tears as she described for the press just how she had been working to preserve their marriage, only to have her best efforts undone by Rudy's arrogantly parading his mistresses around in public.

Well, as they used to say, that tore it.

All the little secrets Rudy had worked so hard to keep from the upstate voters were now being broadcast everywhere from Albany to Buffalo.

The New York Times, which usually is scared stiff of Reichsmaior Rudy, carried the photo of a tearful Donna Hanover on its front page, above the fold, in Thursday's edition. Next to the photo was an article on the
separation and the dueling press conferences.

And Rudy, who had worked so hard to depict his Democratic opponent Hillary Rodham Clinton as the amoral enabler of a filthy philanderer, while depicting himself as the tough-but-fair family man, was not only caught with
his pants down, but with footage of the event reaching into every home in the state.

Stick a fork in him. He's done, at least in this race.

No way will the New York GOP tolerate this. Rudy has made so many bad moves in the past few weeks that many New York Republicans are actually questioning his sanity. It's almost as if he's trying to make himself so unpalatable that the GOP will be forced to let him take his $20 million and go home, so he can get ready to run for Governor in 2002.

In fact, the only way his recent actions make any sense is to see them as part of a deliberate self-tanking strategy. The main reason the GOP is hanging onto him right now is that they've got 20 big ones invested in him, and they really don't want to have to raise that money all over again for Lazio. But if he can make himself as desirable as crib death, then the New York Republicans may decide that flushing $20 million down the toilet is a small price to pay to be rid of him for the nonce.

He'll use the prostate cancer as his official reason for pulling out, but everyone with a brain knows he's doing this because he doesn't want to be known as the man who lost to Hillary Clinton.

In the meantime, proof of how far Rudy has fallen has come with the latest news from Judicial Watch. It seems that Larry the Mother-Suer is now going after the once-all-powerful Reichsmaior, in a transparent attempt to show his "impartiality". Klayman would never have dared this two weeks ago, but now that Rudy has shot himself in both feet, Klayman is exercising his hyena skills and moving in to nibble at the Reichsmaior's political corpse.

Ah, Rudy. Take the money and run. And pray the state GOP is willing to forgive you in 2002. If you think Donna was nasty to you, just wait until you attempt to run for Governor in two years.