American Politics Journal -- Summit Preview

The View from Europe
Summit Preview
Can Blair neutralize the "Rumsfeld Effect"?
By Nicola Mitchell

April 2, 2002 -- LONDON (APJP) -- As the UK prepares to enter a week of national mourning to mark the death of the Queen Mother, the British media, for obvious reasons, is preoccupied with the story.

But in the midst of all the mourning, Tony Blair is about to make a trip that is guaranteed to make the headlines. He is preparing to fly out to meet with Bush at his Texas ranch, with discussions about the proposed war in Iraq high on the agenda.

The departure of the Queen Mother has cooled off speculation in the UK press as to what Blair's next move will be regarding the situation in Iraq, but this latest meeting with Bush will no doubt add more fuel to the flames of speculation about Blair's actual intentions where Iraq is concerned.

In the past some, including myself, have been critical of Blair's relationship with Bush. The accidental president has often been seen as the one who holds all the cards of power, but as time progresses it is obvious that Bush needs Blair, and hopefully Blair can exercise some of this influence to clam Bush Jr. down.

And God knows, he needs a calming influence. Having trigger-happy advisors such as Donald Rumsfeld in his administration hardly instil us with confidence. His "let's nuke 'em all" attitude is hardly the way forward, particularly as the administration is supposedly on a quest for peace.

We all know that if Rumsfeld had his way, the war in Afghanistan would have begun, all guns blazing, on September 12th, with an attack on Iraq following not too far behind. Many say that it was Blair who convinced Bush for the need to prove Osama bin Laden's involvement, particularly to Arab nations who don't see America in the best of lights. In their eyes, Britain is a lesser evil than America, and therein lays Blair's importance to Bush.

So what comes out of this latest Blair-Bush summit is anyone's guess. Many believe he will offer his support for strikes against Iraq, as long as the rest of the world believes the action is necessary. Rumsfeld's bull-in-a-china-shop approach just doesn't cut it with the rest of the world; it demonstrates the arrogant and impatient tendencies of an administration many countries are still extremely wary of.

If Blair can neutralise the Rumsfeld effect and go some way towards easing such fears, then he is proving an invaluable resource to Bush, coupled with the fact that a close alliance with Britain will help him make some inroads into other European countries.

So far Blair has played a clever game on the American political table, but what repercussions this will have in the British political field is yet to be seen.