The View from Europe
Ifs, Buts and Maybes
Blair gives Bush a boost-- but based on just what?
by Nicola Mitchell

Sept. 23, 2002 -- LONDON (APJP) -- Another week on and the Bush administration is still pushing its way forward with an Iraqi offensive, only now the White House is no longer standing alone in its quest to rid the world of Saddam Hussein; they have acquired the full public backing of Tony Blair.

So with a new ally in tow, war in Iraq looks more inevitable then ever.

Up until the recent Bush-Blair war summit at Camp David, Tony Blair had only ever danced around the subject of going to war with Iraq. But now, as if there was ever really much doubt, Blair has chosen to sweep aside the opinion of the British public and declared, in words that mirror those spoken by Robert McNamara, Lyndon Johnson's defence secretary, to Harold Wilson, that he is "willing to pay the blood price" for Britain's special relationship with America, a turn of phrase which sent a shiver down the spines of many UK citizens.

But now Blair has pledged his full support to Dubya he faces an extremely tough week here in the UK. In fact, even Downing Street has dubbed the new few days as "key" in their effort to build up support for a potential strike against the Iraqi leader.

One of the first hurdles Blair will have to face is the recall of Parliament, a move which will finally give British MP's a chance to air their views on the subject. Next on Downing Street's list is the release of the much hyped dossier on Saddam Hussein. Blair is hoping that the document, which has been carefully drafted in co-operation with the White House, will help to shore up support for military action against the dictator, although many UK commentators still remain cynical about its contents.

But for all the criticism currently being levelled at Blair, his motives for backing Bush seem, in the most part at least, to be genuine. As with his role in Afghanistan many believe Blair is looking at the bigger picture, creating a better more stable environment. When he offered military support to Bush to help bring down the Taliban he though the administration shared his enthusiasm about creating a new democratic government in the country which had been ruled for so long by violence and dictatorship. However, once the military offensive had served its purpose, Bush went in search of the next target, leaving ideas of working to create a stable democracy far behind. Likewise with Iraq, Tony Blair is again keen to help rebuild the country, but like a child who has grown tired of its toys, Bush is unlikely to want to stick around for the happy ending Blair desires.

However despite Blair's good intentions and all of their combined efforts to sway public opinion, the task ahead of Bush and Blair has been made even more difficult by Saddam's offer to let the weapons inspectors back into Iraq.

Of course it comes as no great surprise that Bush rejected the offer out of hand, after all the mid-terms are looming on the horizon. However, Dubya's outright refusal to even consider any other strategy is obviously ruffling a few European feathers, as earlier in the week the German justice minister, Herta Daubler-Gmelin, was reported to have compared Bush's methods to those of Adolph Hitler!

So as Tony Blair prepares to face another tough week, we can only wait to digest just what damming evidence, if any, is actually contained in this famous dossier. So far the Bush administration has made much of "new" reports and photos such as the ones published by the International Atomic Energy Authority -- but these have all proved to be nothing more overhyped theories and possibilities. Currently team Bush-Blair seems to be campaigning on too many if buts and maybes, and we will have to wait and see if the release of the Hussein dossier will change all that, but if the "evidence" still remains weak, both Blair and Bush should think again before 'paying the blood price' with the lives of both British and American soldiers, not to mention those of hundreds of innocent Iraqi civilians.