About That Gallup Poll... Two-thirds of Democrats are not following the presidential horse race at all this back-to-school week. So let's look at Gallup's poll numbers today (September 2nd 2003): Name Identification is a test of how many voters believe they know something about each candidate. Lieberman, of course, will have the highest Name ID scores. After all, he was the most recent Democratic candidate for vice president. Gephardt was also a previous presidential candidate, and Kerry is a well-covered US Senator. It's Dean, a relative nobody at the start of this fully packed race, that shows the momentum - and it is Dean one should watch. 1. Lieberman 73% 2. Gephardt 64% 3. Kerry 56% 4. Dean 43% 5. Edwards 38% "Who would you vote for?" is the "horse race" or "vote-for" question -- and it means nothing, except for Gephardt. As you can see from the "Name ID" question, he has high name identification. The results shown below indicate people know him but won't vote for him -- bad news for Dick. 1. Lieberman 23% 2. Gephardt 13% 3. Dean 12% 4. Kerry 10%

2004 Campaign Update
It's Dean's to Lose
By Jeff Koopersmith

Sept. 2, 2003 -- Washington (apj.us) -- One would think that Sen. Joseph Lieberman has a lot to celebrate with the Gallup Poll numbers we've seen strewn all over CNN (see the appendix below).

But wait...

Take a look at the difference between his "name ID" and "vote-for" numbers. It's extreme - and that's a bad sign. It means that of the 73% of American Democrats who know him -- fewer than one-third -- would vote for him amid the other choices.

That's very bad news.

And so it begins.

Today, the day after the Labor Day holiday weekend, is the traditional big kick time for incumbents and especially challenger hopefuls.

So why is America yawning?

Maybe because, aside from former Vermont governor Howard Dean, blah-blah-speak is the action of the day. The rest of the Democrat presidential hopefuls are trying to be George W. Bush as much as politically possible - plying the old Democratic Leadership Council shtick that worked so well for Bill Clinton but probably won't work again.

Leading the Bush Clone Pack according to Gallup is Lieberman, who talks more and more like a moderate Republican every day but is paying for it big time -- and in the end, Lieberman will have to abandon this strategy in order to compete.

Howard Dean is the proof of it. In other polls he's beating the rest of the Dems by considerable margins, and no one seems close to catching up -- especially on the fundraising and news coverage side. Dean is poised to collect at least three times the campaign funds as the next in line, leaving Massachusetts Senator John Kerry the only candidate to possibly match him -- with private family wealth.

Here's what's happening on the campaign trail.

-- George W. Bush --

The Bushies are jittery.

Although the President seems to be able to wring money from a stone, and might raise as much as $300 million before it's all over, his numbers are slipping. If economic news and the situation in Iraq don't improve, watch for a big turndown as Thanksgiving approaches. Remember, too many Americans are suffering -- with less to give thanks for under Bush's nearly frenetic appeasement of big business and private wealthy contributors.

Job losses -- especially those due to a shift of labor to other countries and trade issues which cripple American manufacturers -- have hurt Bush, with three million Americans on unemployment lines. The biggest joke to emerge from the Bush campaign came this past weekend when the President told us he was creating an Assistant Secretary at Commerce to find a solution for US manufacturing problems.

Yeah, right. One can only consult the Magic Eight Ball to see what mystery will intervene to regain millions of jobs and open thousands of closed factories across the rust belt.

Mr. Bush, God bless him, is still putting us all on with his perpetual claim that his tax cuts will spur the lackluster economy. He's being helped by CNBC, MSNBC and CNNfn - where, if one tunes in, one might think that the Internet "bubble" is about to reinflate.

And Bush -- even as a near civil war is breaking in Iraq -- pretends that plans are moving along just fine, and that his useless "roadmap to peace" between Israel and the Palestinians will somehow be reinvigorated from above.

Meanwhile, Bush is presiding over the filthying-up of our already dirty air and handing out mining licenses in our national parks like cotton candy, setting himself up as an oversize target for conservationists and other greenies -- who are seething already about Kyoto, the push for ANWR drilling, and other Bush Blunders for Cash made over the past two plus years.

Meanwhile Bush and his buddies are sticking it to the poor with runaway prices on natural gas, gasoline for their automobiles, and electricity rates - expenses which rival the food bills for far too many families.

-- The Democrats --

The venerable and most often hilariously right wing Manhattan rag The New York Post rates the following odds for the Democratic Party Nomination:

Dean: 2 to 1
Gephardt: 5 to 2
Kerry: 4 to 1
Wesley Clark: 10 to 1
Sen. John Edwards: 12 to 1
Lieberman: 14 to 1.

Gephardt's hard labor endorsements are the only thing keeping him afloat -- but watch for those to ebb as his weakness becomes more apparent.

-- John Edwards --

The good-looking southern family man is well out of the race already. My sources tell me that he'll back out of the race as soon as he can find a graceful way to do so -- despite his recent remarks to the contrary. He has a Senate seat to defend -- and should begin to do so forthwith. Edwards blasted George W. for the loss of textile jobs in South Carolina -- but heck, that's been news for the past 25 years thanks to globalization, whether you're "fer it or agin' it."

-- Howard Dean --

The Dean camp is busy pumping up their volunteer base and wowing traditional Democrats - Rush Limbaugh calls them "commies" and calls Dean "Nikita", so you know Dean is on the correct track.

The DNC establishment over on Ivy Street is not yet convinced -- although some chatter on my phone says that they're beginning to see the light. Much will depend on Bill Clinton -- and that might cause some trouble for Dean. Clinton still runs the show at the DNC and might be pushing for another candidate. Although Lieberman would be the closest clone, I don't think it will be Joe.

In its web based "September to Remember," Dean's people are seeking to recruit a total of 450,000 online activists by November 1st -- this year! They are also doing community projects in hot states using the "Dean Corps" -- cute and getting press.

A full court press is on undeclared potential elected officials to endorse Howard Dean.

Dean is also gearing up big in Iowa -- trying to quadruple its good base of volunteers.

Dean attracts a quality volunteer corps because he is the only candidate with the courage to attack Bush unmercifully where the President should be attacked. While the other Democrat candidates are busy apologizing for supporting the President on Iraq, Dean can proudly say he was against it from the start -- and for the right reasons.

The real play is behind the scenes across the rust belt, where Dean supporters are trying to stop major labor from endorsing Dick Gephardt -- not an easy thing to do. What labor will do is a bigger problem for them than for the candidates. Gephardt has given them his all -- but Dean is more electable as things stand now. Unfortunately, Gephardt is seen as a past loser, and this does not help.

Dean is also raising money -- big money for a Democrat caught up in a crowded but dismal horse race. The campaign expects to raise more than $10 million quickly in the post-Labor Day week.

Dean is already paying a price for being the front running Democrat. He's had to back off his announced stance to support freeing up relations and trade with Cuba for the Florida vote, and has had to backpedal on increase the social security retirement age -- a good thing to back off.

But don't count on Dean to be proud to lose -- he'll do whatever it takes, including changing his views in midstream if need be -- the mark of a skilled politician and a usual one.

-- Bob Graham --

I like Bob Graham, but he is soon to realize the wonders of remaining a US Senator from Florida. Today he poses a slight threat to the hard-to-beat Al Sharpton, Dennis Kucinich, and Carol Moseley Braun! Graham is all but invisible on the never-ending pundit shows --but at least he can tell his great grandchildren he was a presidential contender!

-- Dick Gephardt --

Gephardt will begin running television today in key primary states -- maybe more than two (Iowa and New Hampshire).

But the Democrat redhead can't seem to move beyond his dream of a mass labor endorsement that will do him little good if union workers bolt from the bosses and vote independently of the recommendations -- which they've been doing since the days of Ronald Reagan. Perhaps the great John Sweeney -- a tough battler -- will convince his members to do the Gephardt thing -- but it's doubtful.

Gephardt follows Dean, who was first on the air with ads, and Edwards, who ran three at the start of August.

Yet count of Gephardt to be conservative with his media -- repeating his trail-worn message about "fighting for working families."

He is. But nobody seems to care.

-- Joe Lieberman --

Lieberman has the most elegant campaign consultants and the genius of Bill Clinton's former pollster, Mark Penn, on his side. The only problem right now, however, is Penn, who is preaching something akin to co-opting GOP ideals in order to win.

That's a lot of what Bill Clinton did to win the second term, and some in the first. But it won't work today, and that's why Dean has pulled so far ahead.

Dean is no afraid to call Bush what he is -- unprepared, and in the back pocket of industry.

Lieberman is counting on his health care plan to create the semantic differential he so desperately needs between himself and both parties. It's tough to tell sometimes whether Lieberman is a Republican or a Democrat, he's playing so carefully under the Penn playbook.

The problem for Lieberman, one shared by the other health care Dems, is that their plans are necessarily complex and no one understands them. One need only attend a town hall style meeting and listen to the questions from seniors and the poor to see this.

Make it simple, Joe -- especially since you never much cared about it before.

-- Carol Moseley Braun --

What can I say? Carol is a non player. What she's doing in this race is only your guess --but speaking fees might be part of it. Her remarks comparing the civil rights struggles of Muslim in American today to the civil rights movement post-WWII were... unfortunate?

-- Wesley Clark --

Former General Wesley Clark has captured a lot of Democrat imagination. Even mine. He could be a very credible anti-Bush candidate -- and put to rest fears of Democrats wussies in charge of Arabia.

But the bottom line is that Clark has waited too long. He'd have to jump in this week -- with both feet running -- to gain credibility. He could have waited longer had Dean begun to fizzle, but now a join-up with another weaker candidate, or maybe Dean himself, is his only hope.

"Draft Clark" sites are everywhere on the Internet. But this won't do it.

-- Al Sharpton --

Al who?

JEFF KOOPERSMITH is a political consultant, opinion research authority, policy analyst, and self-described "renegade lobbyist."