Jeff Koopersmith

Today Nearly Any Serious Democrat Could Beat Bush
The key word: Today
by Jeff Koopersmith

Sept 23, 2003 -- NEW YORK (apj.us) -- As George W. Bush defensively mounted the podium at the United Nations this morning, Karl Rove sat in his office, worried and brooding over the latest offering by the opposition, General Wesley Clark, who despite the twaddle offered by significant and significantly misled pundits is not -- I repeat, not -- the hand-picked candidate of Hillary and Bill Clinton.

Rove is stunned for two reasons.

First, the President's favorable vs. unfavorable numbers are plummeting. This in and of itself is no great news for Democrats. Any student of political history will recall similar numbers for the majority of past presidents and even candidates for president more than a year out from the next election.

What is significant, however is the extraordinarily rapid decline in President Bush's approval ratings. Even the conservative-leaning Gallup Poll shows a stunning deterioration of 21 percentage points for the six month period between late March and late September of this year.

For White House campaign strategists this is a five alarm fire.

The second reason Mr. Rove might double his does of Prozac this morning is that "horse race" polls, although favoring General Clark among Democrat voters, also indicate that any one of the major Democrat candidates could whoop Bush is the presidential election were held today.

"Could" does not mean "would."

Yet "could" is sufficient to give the President and his benefactors heartburn.

Clark beats Bush by perhaps more than hair, and the other top runners have that same chance.

Lets look at the numbers Gallup presents this week:

General Clark, today, might beat George Bush by three to five percentage points. Clark has soared to the top in the Democrat "bored-out-of-mind-off," now outpolling Howard Dean three to one in the latest polls of Democrat contenders.

Certainly, Clark is the man to watch -- and make no mistake, other Democrat challengers will attempt to bring Clark to his knees before the end of October.

Howard Dean does not do much worse. The wind is blowing in his direction, even today if he can bring the undecideds over to his camp, he could beat Bush but a few points.

Dick Gephardt vs. George W. Bush
	Gep	Bush	Neither	Other	No opinion
NATIONAL ADULTS
2003 Sep 19-21	45	49	3	1	2
REGISTERED VOTERS
2003 Sep 19-21	46	48	2	1	2
John Kerry vs. George W. Bush
	Kerry	Bush	Neither	Other	No opinion
NATIONAL ADULTS
2003 Sep 19-21	47	48	2	1	2
REGISTERED VOTERS
2003 Sep 19-21	48	47	2	1	2
Joe Lieberman vs. George W. Bush
	Lieb	Bush	Neither	Other	No opinion
NATIONAL ADULTS
2003 Sep 19-21	46	49	3	*	2
REGISTERED VOTERS
2003 Sep 19-21	47	48	3	*	2

In fact, as you see by the numbers above, any of the leading Democrats could beat Bush -- but let me reiterate: "could" is a long way away from "1600 Pennsylvania Avenue."

So, there you have it.

The big losers of the day?

The first would be George W. Bush, who left them unmoved on the floor of the UN General Assembly and is sure to drop in the polls yet again. He is followed by Howard Dean who sees himself lagging behind newcomer Clark by a long shot. Clark has twice the support of Democrats today. Joining Dean are Gephardt, Lieberman, Kerry -- and the others who are not serious candidates.

And then, don't forget, there is bad old Ralph Nader -- skulking, poised, and ready to deliver another election to George W. Bush if Nader doesn't "approve" of the rest of the Democrat candidates.

One would hope that Nader -- who has become one of the most hated of the beloved leaders on the left -- would wake up and keep his nose out of national politics -- at least as a candidate. He did so much harm to this nation, and to the world by his egomaniacal move in 2000 that he ought to horsewhipped behind his Connecticut barn.

And yes, let me mention the other spurious candidates.

I'll start with the wonderful Dennis Kucinich, who many of my readers tell me is the best man for the job. Kucinich should bow out gracefully now and stop wasting the money of ardent supporters and friends who hope against hope he can become formidable. He isn't. He will not be. It's not in the cards. Dennis Kucinich is a kind and gentle man, an intellectual, a lover of freedom and of humankind -- and there is no room for him in an arena filled with self-serving and greedy people. It makes him look less than he is even to be among them. Let him stay on the horse race sideline -- in other words, get him back to Capitol Hill where he can do his best to educate the decision-makers, stick up for the little guy, take potshots at the cranks -- and be truly effective as the conscience of the Democratic Party.

	THE SAD NUMBERS  (for anyone but Clark)
	NA: Based on 480 Democrats or Democratic leaners    RV: Based on 457 Democrats or Democratic leaners    who are registered to vote
	2003 Sep 19-21
		NA	RV
	Wesley Clark	29	29
	Howard Dean	22	24
	John Kerry	23	23
	Joe Lieberman	24	22
	Dick Gephardt	21	23
	Al Sharpton	8	7
	John Edwards	7	7
	Bob Graham	7	7
	Carol Moseley Braun	8	8
	Dennis Kucinich	4	4
	None/Other/No Opinion	15	15

John Edwards: well, he's cute, and he's sassy and he's all the things that he thinks Jack Kennedy was in 1959. Unfortunately, this isn't 1959, and Edwards' dad isn't a billionaire.

It is time for Edwards, who just announced for the second or third time, to get out. He hasn't got a prayer -- and he too is wasting supporter money that could be put to better use by a more formidable candidate.

Edwards' time will come. He knows it. Rather than waste our time on his building name identification for 2008 or 2012, he should withdraw now and lend what little strength he has to his own favorite.

Al Sharpton: no matter how much he plays the braggart, Sharpton should stay in. He has usurped Jesse Jackson's role at the minority bully pulpit. One might guess that Mr. Sharpton is standing as an example to his grandchildren, and building a legacy as a Black American leader. He is. However, to take him seriously -- other than as a pin in the thigh of Democrats who have sadly marginalized those very minorities that served them well -- is foolish.

Hopefully Mr. Sharpton can build a big enough war chest to pay himself and his staff well for their fine effort. Sharpton will emerge much stronger and more erudite than before. He is not presidential timbre.

I have no idea what is going on in Carol Moseley Braun's head. She should be a high priestess. She's at the bottom of the ladder but still with twice the support of Kucinich. Yet she is so fine. So delicately ready to take on the media and to speak the careful truth warmly and without malice. She is a lady. She is a possible vice presidential choice -- but possible with a very small "p" owing to America's ever escalating tango with racism. I admire Moseley Braun, but I don't think she is doing much but sowing seed. For what? We will know in the future.

Finally, the joke of the day: Vice President Dick Cheney -- a creature of Satan if there ever was one -- is outpolling the President this week.

What does that say about George W. Bush?

JEFF KOOPERSMITH is a political consultant, opinion research authority, policy analyst, and self-described "renegade lobbyist."