Jeff Koopersmith

Why Howard Dean Lost Iowa
Organized labor, ill-fitting clothes, that woodchuck smile... for starters
By Jeff Koopersmith

By Jeff Koopersmith

Jan. 20, 2004 -- WASHINGTON (apj.us) -- I certainly have egg on my face.

I predicted to someone, somewhere (because I saw myself quoted), that organized labor would make the all-important difference to thrust former Vermont Governor Howard Dean and even Congressman Dick Gephardt (MO) to the number one or two position in the Iowa Caucuses last night.

Was I drunk or what?

I mean, what does it take for the chief union boss to tell the regional union boss, the state union boss, the county union boss, the local union boss, and the precinct union boss, "GET THOSE BASTARDS TO EVERY CAUCUS LOCATION IN IOWA -- or you're gonna end up as part of freeway overpass!"?

That's all it would have taken: a little old-time loyal union members who don't identify with John D. Rockefeller's idea of the American Dream and are sick of not getting a part of it.

Karl Rove must have been popping the champagne last night watching labor fall on its incompetent face -- delivering the last and second to last position to the two men most loyal to their mission.

So much for Mr. John Sweeney and his ilk, whom we had counted on to deliver votes to those Democrats who toil with working families in mind.

If I were Gephardt, I'd sponsor one bill after another repealing the Taft-Hartley Act.

Not coming in first was not the problem for Dean. It was coming in such a pitiable third -- with Senator John Kerry (MA) gaining 110% more "votes" than Dean, and Senator John Edwards (SC) nearly 80% more.

That's a stunning defeat -- in anyone's book.

Kerry had nearly 38 percent of the delegate support awarded in the caucuses; Edwards, 32 percent; Dr. Dean, 18 percent; Gephardt, 10 percent; and Congressman Dennis J. Kucinich of Ohio 1 percent.

More than 120,000 people participated, approaching the record of roughly 125,000 reported for the 1988 caucuses.

Throughout the coverage of the caucus aftermath, all of the broadcast pundits either said they were or just plain seemed surprised that Dean won barely half the support of voters who said the Iraq war their main concern. Kerry did better than Dr. Dean even among these antiwar Iowans, even though in Kerry voted "Aye" for the resolution sanctioning the war.

Yet none of them offer a reason why.

The answer is complex, but it may boil down to one factor: the "mainstream" news media has maintained a hawkish attitude on the Iraq war and, in doing so, has severely undermined the opposition of both Dean and Kucinich to going to war -- based on lies.

Thus far, not a single television news anchor has dared called President Bush or members of his cabinet liars -- although it's quite clear they are.

Bottom line: it's the media, stupid. They control the public mind -- and that's how you get leading candidates like Kerry and Edwards -- Campbell's-soup types who don't rile anyone, look good, and won't rock the boat -- at least too much.

There was another truth revealed last night in Iowa: when people really "get to know" Howard Dean, they don't like him. That's the most disturbing factor that Joe Trippi should consider, and consider carefully. He has to find the "why" here as well.

It may well be the Dean was overexposed, spent too much money in Iowa, and took the caucuses far too seriously -- which anyone who even contends there could be accused of. But Dean spent something like $12 million in Iowa and meandered around that state for nigh on two full years!

Either they didn't like him in the end, or they just got sick of him.

I learned at a young age that you indeed can spend too much money and too much time, and thereby poison an otherwise positive election position.

The criticism that Dean had engaged in too much negative campaigning along with Gephardt is just garbage. Almost all political advertising could be called "negative" -- because by its very nature it MUST attack the opposition while showing the strengths of the candidate behind the ad. Don't ever listen to the pundits whining about "attack ads" -- they are the cruise missiles of commercial politics and are very effective.

But -- and add another "but" -- when the mainstream news media begins to tell the average American that "Dean is bad" for attacking Kerry, then these ads do seem like a bad idea. And of course this is what the mainstream wants: again, "Let's not shake things up too much."

This is why America ended up with a dullard president in 2000 who continues to lie -- with arrogance and impunity -- to the voters. And who can blame him? Hell, with a rubber stamp from ABC, NBC, CBS and CNN, George W. Bush can do no wrong. It Dan Rather says it's okay, it's okay. But do Rather and Tom Brokaw and Peter Jennings take that truth seriously? I doubt it. Only Bill Moyers seems to have the people -- and not the size of his bank account -- in mind.

Howard Dean has other problems with the media as well -- the way the camera sees him. As a Dean supporter (now that Dennis Kucinich has proven his non-viability) I offer these criticisms strictly from professionals I've asked about this:

Howard Dean is a "schlump," one top New York designer told me the other day: "His suits and jackets don't fit. He looks like an insurance salesman. He wears too much brown. He's a schlump! He wears cheap clothes while the others wear custom. Is he poor?"

Translated from New Yorkese, this means that Dean looks like throwback to the fifties and needs a good tailor -- something pabulum like Brooks Brothers or J. Press. A schlump, I'm told, is worse than a schlep!

Dean needs a new haircut.

I spoke to a pretty well-known hair cutter at Frederic Fekkai in New York who told me that Dean just needs to do something with his hair. I can't see it, but the hair stylist is probably right -- he earns more than $150 to cut hair and is not a "rock star" cutter.

"What's with the woodchuck smile?" That question comes from a friend in personal management. She is talking about the way Dr. Dean smiles between his lips making it appear that he's forcing the smile -- with his top teeth almost glued to the inside of his bottom lip. "He can fix that with just a couple hours of lessons," she tells me. She adds that Dean should get rid of the crew-neck sweaters, because it reminds her of Jimmy Carter and does not look "presidential."

Now, most of us would look at the above advice and scoff. Why should we care what Dean wears and who his tailor is and who cuts his hair?

Here's the simple answer: we must if we want him to be elected.

The simple truth: national politicians are now television megastars.

They have to adhere to the same regimens as do television stars.

Memo to Joe Trippi:

Hire the best image consultant you can find.

And don't tell anyone!

Enough said.

Dr. Dean should also try with all his might NOT to scream like a neutered cowboy ("YIPPEEEEEEEEEEEE!") after working up the crowd.

Anyway, what do I know? In order, I picked:

Dean
Gephardt
Kerry
Edwards
Kucinich

Well, there's some consolation -- I got the last one right!

JEFF KOOPERSMITH is a political consultant, opinion research authority, policy analyst, and self-described "renegade lobbyist."